Об издержках, порождаемых проблемами измерения инфляции
The article examines problems related to the measurement of Russian inflation that lead to distorted perception of economic reality which economic agents have. The authors discuss recent changes in methods for constructing the Russian consumer price index (CPI) and the effect this will have on the economic policy. The change in the information base upon which the weights are based, has resulted in the fact that (all other things being equal) the CPI, calculated according to the new methodology, shows a somewhat higher rate of inflation. This creates a more pessimistic view of the situation in the economy and provokes a more stringent monetary policy.
The paper discusses approaches to the analysis of tendencies in the prices dynamics on the example the accelerating inflation episode of the end of 2014 - early 2015. It is shown that common incorrect methods for analysis of short-term trends lead to conclusions about the duration of the episode and the dating of the respective turning points that are known to be wrong.
The author review those features of the CPI constructing technique, which affect the accuracy of inflation measurement amid economic crises. An incomplete accounting of household expenditures on housing is shown to result in an overestimation of the CPI growth rate for the cost of living in the initial phase of the crisis and in their underestimation at the stage of post-crisis recovery. All these distortions can the cause of sub-optimal decisions and influence the operation of economy. The paper discusses the nature of this influence and associated costs.
While much of the world worries about increasing population, this book looks the other way. It highlights the dramatic fall in fertility rates in all regions of the world. Demographers suggest that by 2050 this will lead to population decline. While environmentally this may be welcomed, there may also be negative impacts on our economies: less workers, an increasing number of elderly, and more unwanted childlessness. In this book, key experts untangle the reasons for not having children; international case studies demonstrate that there are similar but also different reasons operating in different areas and psychologists and sociologists explore the possible impact on children, parents and the elderly. Given that fertility trends are not easy to reverse, the book concludes that more needs to be done to maximize the potential of all children; particularly those who have been at the margins of society.
Crisis as a phase of an economic cycle is of most interest. Study of crises in historical retrospective is necessary for understanding of the main mechanisms, regularities and causes of crisis phenomena. The article deals with the history of the world economic crises and classification of their causes.
In the last two decades considerable attention has been drawn to the methods of computing price indexes for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products: the discussion started in the USA and then has been continued throughout the globe. Report prepared by Boskin Commission (1996) raised the problem of biases in the price indexes for ICT products: it showed that traditional matched models indexes can substantially overestimate inflation, because they are not able to measure the peculiarities of ICT industries (i.e. fast rotation of goods, huge quality differences among products on the market, short product life cycle, etc). The Commission showed that the use of matched model indexes leads to inflation rates overestimation by 0,6% per year in the US official CPI (CPI-U). Similar results were obtained by Crawford (1998) for Canada, Lequiller (1997) for France, Shiratsuka (1999) for Japan, Hoffmann (1998) for Germany and Cunningham (1996) for the UK.
The conference is organized in collaboration with Polish Economic Society Branch in Toruń and Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic), BA School of Business and Finance (Latvia), Daugavpils University (Lithuania), Pereyaslav-Khmelnitsky Hryhoriy Skovoroda State Pedagogical University (Ukraine), University of Angers (France), University of Pablo de Olavide (Spain), University of Latvia (Latvia). The conference is addressed to economist from all European Union countries and Eastern Europe. It aims to bring together economists form Western, Central and Eastern Europe to discuss issues in economics, finance and business management. Main conference tracks include: 1. Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Econometrics; International Economics 2. Financial markets; Labour markets; Institutions; 3. Business environment; Management and Marketing.
Using data on foreign borrowing, I identify Russian banks that were affected by the sudden stop of external financing caused by the Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Applying the difference-in-difference method, I compare these «affected» banks to «unaffected» ones and find that the Russian Central Bank’s (CBR) anti-crisis financial assistance primarily went to the former group. Tracing the impact of the CBR’s liquidity infusions on banks’ portfolio allocation decisions, I find that banks used CBR funds not only to pay out foreign debt, but also to accumulate cash deposits in non-resident banks. I also find that affected banks increased their holdings of market securities significantly more than unaffected ones, which suggests that the CBR’s bailout policies impacted their risk-taking strategies. While there was no significant difference in corporate lending growth between the two groups after the sudden stop, lending to borrowers with weaker banking relationships (individuals and entrepreneurs) decreased more among affected banks.
The paper analyzes storage peculiarities of satellite Earth remote sensing data time series. We propose methods for their compression based on the discovered peculiarities exploiting different schemes of Huffman coding. One of the proposed methods reaches 6% increase in the compression ratio (93%) in contrast to the deflate method used in Java SE6 (87%), for a time series of aerosol optical thickness derived from MODIS radiometer of TERRA satellite. Further improvement can be achieved by using the entropy coding of floating point numbers.
We consider certain spaces of functions on the circle, which naturally appear in harmonic analysis, and superposition operators on these spaces. We study the following question: which functions have the property that each their superposition with a homeomorphism of the circle belongs to a given space? We also study the multidimensional case.
We consider the spaces of functions on the m-dimensional torus, whose Fourier transform is p -summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of the exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase. The results generalize to the multidimensional case the one-dimensional results obtained by the author earlier in “Quantitative estimates in the Beurling—Helson theorem”, Sbornik: Mathematics, 201:12 (2010), 1811 – 1836.
We consider the spaces of function on the circle whose Fourier transform is p-summable. We obtain estimates for the norms of exponential functions deformed by a C1 -smooth phase.