Выборы-2016: рутина или перемены? Что означает парламентская кампания для будущего российской политической системы?
The article analyzes key factors influencing the electoral campaign for the State Duma (lower House of Russian parliament) in 2016, including but not limited to effects of recent reforms in the party and electoral systems; it discusses chances of main political parties and candidates and forecasts results of elections for party lists and single-mandate districts. Further the article considers impact of the elections for the Russian political system. The principal conclusion made by the authors is that layout of political forces in the next Duma will undergo only limited changes; the Russian regime will succeed in holding reasonably fair and legitimate elections, the results of which will satisfy the public. However the new Duma, or the Russian party system in general will not undergo any significant positive development and will remain poorly fit to meet the challenges that face the country.
In early 2010 Russia once again entered a turbulent period. From the system of property distribution, to structure of the political elites and relations between the Center and the regions - various spheres of Russian life are in a state of flux. Two major factors are driving this change: oil prices which are unlikely to grow the way they did in the 2000s and the rapidly deteriorating efficiency of governance. Relations between federal and regional elites, as well as public activism, are derived from these two factors and play an important role of their own. Will change take an evolutionary path or is Russia facing another revolution? The book offers a view of the Russian future until 2025 based on thematic scenarios created by an international team of Russia scholars whose expertise range from politics and economics to demographics and foreign policy.
In this paper we consider the nature of local Nash equilibrium (LNE) for a model
of the 2007 Duma election in Russia, using estimates of valence obtained from sociodemographic
We then extend this sociodemographic valence model by including institutional valences,
the approval by voters of the various institutions, including the President, the PrimeMinister,
the State Duma and the Federation Council.We show by simulation that the vote maximizing
LNE of this general stochastic model were not at the electoral origin. The dominant feature
of the election was the influence of approval or disapproval of President Putin on each voter’s
The article represents some key theoretical and legal aspects of the opposition phenomenon in stable democracies and transitional regimes regarding such items as the formation of political parties, legal regulation, forms and methods of the opposition activity in contemporary Russian political debates.
The article is devoted to the issue of regional representation in Russian parliament. The level of regional representation did not decrease, but even slightly increased in the State Duma of the fifth convocation. The author tries to answer the question how the change in the electoral system can influence the configuration of elites in the party lists and how parties' opportunities were changed by loopholes in the law, also why the «United Russia» won the 2007 electoral campaign.
The book overviews historic development and the current state of Western political conservatism and analyzes positions of contemporary Russian conservative political thinkers and public figures. It also contains chapters on "national models" of conservatism in six Western countries and draft concept of "Conservatism for Development", an agenda for dilague of civil society about development of Russia.