ПОСЛЕ ВЫБОРОВ: СЦЕНАРИИ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ПРАВЯЩИХ КОАЛИЦИЙ

Политическая наука. 2026. № 1. С. 85–111.

Makarenko B.

The article deals with changes in the processes of formation of
government coalitions in 16 European countries during the two recent decades (4 most
recent cycles of parliamentary elections). The author states that these processes become
more complicated: many party systems get fragmented, the median size of the coalition
tends to decline, coalitions do not enjoy majority support in parliament more frequently
(particularly in Nordic countries). Beside quantitative indicators, formation of
coalitions is further complicated by growing influence of populist parties, which are
ideologically too far from mainstream ones that normally form governments.
The article considers different scenarios of coalition formation. Participation of populist
in governing coalitions becomes a frequent phenomenon. Populists’ interaction with
“systemic” parties follows one of the three scenarios, from complete (or nearly
complete) integration into mainstream (e.g., Switzerland, Italy, Greece) to total non-
integration (right-wing populists in Germany, France, Spain, Belgium) and “negative
integration”, when right-wing populists are reluctantly admitted into coalition, often
with subsequent conflicts (Austria, the Netherlands). Inclusion of populist parties into
mainstream party systems is a controversial process, with differing results in different
contexts. These processes continue to evolve, as the popularity of populist parties
(including the “non-integration” type) remains high in a number of countries.
The author concludes that the principal factor which causes complications in formation
of governing coalitions is structural in nature: it consists of shifts in the balance of
political forces – both quantitative (i.e., fragmentation of party systems) and qualitative
(growth of non-systemic parties). As for institutional changes, it exists but in moderate
format, namely, diversification of scenarios and tactics of coalition formation.

Keywords: выборы, политические партии, популизм, European Union, правящая коалиция, elections, populism, парламентаризм, parliamentarism, political parties, Европейский союз, governing coalition