?
Три европейских партийных полюса и начало второго президентского срока Дональда Трампа
The article analyzes the attitude of the three poles of European party politics - the center-right, the center-left, and the right-populists - to the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States, and also asks the question of whether a similar turnaround based on the coming to power of a "grand coalition" of dissatisfied citizens, the old middle class, and representatives of business interests is possible in Western Europe. As a theory explaining the rise of the Trump coalition in America, the author uses the cleavage theory tied to the class division of society. Describing the features of institutionalization of the new global-value cleavage in Western countries, the author comes to the conclusion that the formation of a "Trump coalition" in Western European countries is extremely unlikely due to a number of structural and institutional factors, such as the coalition nature of multi-party European governments, the presence of a stable model of the welfare state supported by the core of left-center voters, the interest of right-center parties in modernization growth through the use of existing EU rules and institutions, as well as the impossibility for small states involved in close cooperation with each other to copy the isolationist model, presenting it as sufficiently attractive to the mass voter. Meanwhile, the author emphasizes that the European consensus has long-term sustainability only in the context of gradual reform of the European model in order to prevent stagnation and deterioration of the situation of the majority of European citizens. To confirm the conclusions that the European party spectrum can only be considered in its entirety, the author carried out a qualitative content analysis of the recordings of political debates that accompanied the recent parliamentary elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that each of the three poles has its own limited segment of the core electorate, which excludes the possibility of forming a winning alliance under right-wing populist slogans in most countries of the region.