Универсальное ядро и национальная специфика: типология технологических приоритетов в национальных стратегиях

Форсайт. 2026. Т. 20. № 3. С. 6–24.

Malekova D. K., Veselitskaya N., Shashnov S. A.

Technological development dynamics underscore the relevance of a comparative analysis of national priorities in science and innovation. This article identifies and typologizes promising technologies enshrined in the development strategies of 19 countries: the technological leaders—the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Spain, and Italy—and the countries of the Global South—Brazil, India, China, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. It tests two hypotheses: whether a universal “core” of promising technologies exists and whether stable groups of countries with similar innovation profiles emerge. The empirical base is comprised of two to five strategic documents for each country, dating from 2018 to 2026. The analysis employs frequency, semantic, and content analysis; the calculation of the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index across 12 thematic sections and 86 subsections; and k-means clustering.

The analysis confirmed both hypotheses: despite a shared core of priorities, countries differ in their modes of strategic concentration, forming several types of profiles. Although the study is limited to declared rather than actual outcomes, its contribution lies in the systematic comparison of the strategies of advanced economies and the Global South, the identification of specialization models, and the development of conceptual approaches to assessing technological sovereignty in a multipolar world.

Keywords: критические технологии, cluster analysis, кластерный анализ, emerging technologies, critical technologies, перспективные технологии, National strategies, технологический суверенитет, technological sovereignty, technology typology, RCA index, национальные стратегии, типология технологий, индекс RCA