О суицидальной смертности в Российской Федерации на примере Республики Башкортостан
The article states the basic results of suicide mortality research in the Republic of Bashkortostan in the All-Russian and global contexts. Alongside with the study of the general condition of suicide mortality in the region (rate, evolution), the authors have analyzed the self-murderers’ main socio-demographic references, including the data about self-murderers’ marital status, educational level and employment type.
The death rate in Russia is much higher than in the economically developed countries and has a very special developmental trajectory due to historical features. The total life expectancy in Russia, despite the positive trends of the last decade, lags far behind the economically developed countries. Modelling and forecasting mortality is of great importance from a scientific and practical point of view, insurance companies and pension funds are constantly need of such research, because prediction of life expectancy allows to calculate adequate insurance rates and to estimate the required insurance reserves. The actuarial stochastic models that appeared at the end of the 20th century significantly advanced the actuarial science in the question of life expectancy evaluation. The presented work is devoted to the classic models of Lee-Carter and Cairns-Blake-Dowd, and their modified versions with the inclusion of the cohort effect, that was built with the StMoMo package in the R software environment. We found, that Renshaw-Haberman model (Lee-Carter model with the cohort effect) fits the Russian data best. For modelling, the age-specific mortality rates and the probability of dying for 1959-2014 were taken. For the population aged 20 to 88 years from the international database on mortality (Human Mortality Database). Forecasting was carried out using standard ARIMA models.
Length of life in Russia has been decreasing already for 40 years. According to the Programme of Action adopted by the Cairo International Conference on Population in 1994, all countries should commit themselves to raise life expectancy for both sexes above 70 by 2005. It is already clear, that by the year 2005 Russia will not even come near to this goal.At the best it will succeed in reaching the life expectancy recommended for the countries with the highest mortality - 65 years. Child mortality in Russia is declining but at a very low pace. But the case of adult mortality is even worse. High mortality rates result from an insufficient control over many, mainly exogenous causes of death. The general structure of the causes of death remains archaic in many respects. The authors are of the opinion, that demographic losses from high mortality are comparable to military losses. How can Russia get over the demographic crisis? The authors offer their answer to this complicated question.
The chapter examines mortality from external causes of death in the context of the present stage of mortality reduction, in which noncommunicable diseases and causes of death resulting from external sources come to the fore. At this stage, which has lasted for at least half a century, revolutionary changes have taken place in most developed countries. These changes manifest themselves in the drastic expansion of control over non-infectious causes of death, particularly over diseases of the circulatory system, neoplasms, and other noncommunicable diseases, as well as over external causes of death. The consequence of these changes has been the rapid shift of deaths from the abovementioned causes to older ages, an increase in the mean age of death from them and, ultimately, a significant rise in life expectancy. Meanwhile, Russia has been mostly unaffected by these changes and has failed to provide the necessary growth of control over noncommunicable causes of death, including external causes of death. The age distribution of deaths from major classes of causes of death in Russia over the past half-century has not changed, leading to a stagnation in life expectancy and to an increasing lag behind the majority of developed countries with respect to this indicator. "The second epidemiologic revolution" in Russia is still a matter for the future.
Insurance companies and pension funds are affected by many different kinds of risks. In life insurance there are two main risks: the demographic risk and the investment risk. The demographic risk can be dividing into insurance risk and longevity risk. The first risk associated with the random deviation of the number of deaths from its expected value, the second deriving from the improvement in mortality rates. Numbers of actuarial stochastic models have been developed to analyse the mortality changes. This work focuses on Lee-Carter, Cairns-Blake-Dowd models and their extended versions with the inclusion of the cohort effect. We construct 6 stochastic actuarial models on Russian data at the first time. For modelling we use age-specific mortality rates and the probability of dying between 1959 and 2014 for the population aged 20 to 88 years from the Human Mortality Database. We consider age range from 20 to 88. Using the "StMoMo" package in the R software environment, code was written for modelling and predicting mortality with the help of actuarial stochastic models. For comparison of models, information criteria (Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion) were used, as well as sensitivity to changing the time range.
Several approaches to the concept of fatherhood present in Western sociological tradition are analyzed and compared: biological determinism, social constructivism and biosocial theory. The problematics of fatherhood and men’s parental practices is marginalized in modern Russian social research devoted to family and this fact makes the traditional inequality in family relations, when the father’s role is considered secondary compared to that of mother, even stronger. However, in Western critical men’s studies several stages can be outlined: the development of “sex roles” paradigm (biological determinism), the emergence of the hegemonic masculinity concept, inter-disciplinary stage (biosocial theory). According to the approach of biological determinism, the role of a father is that of the patriarch, he continues the family line and serves as a model for his ascendants. Social constructivism looks into man’s functions in the family from the point of view of masculine pressure and establishing hegemony over a woman and children. Biosocial theory aims to unite the biological determinacy of fatherhood with social, cultural and personal context. It is shown that these approaches are directly connected with the level of the society development, marriage and family perceptions, the level of egality of gender order.
This article is talking about state management and cultural policy, their nature and content in term of the new tendency - development of postindustrial society. It mentioned here, that at the moment cultural policy is the base of regional political activity and that regions can get strong competitive advantage if they are able to implement cultural policy successfully. All these trends can produce elements of new economic development.