Малые партии и партийные коалиции в странах Европы: почему одни набирают голоса после участия в правительстве, а другие теряют их?

Политическая наука. 2026. № 1. С. 137–159.

Petrov I.

This article analyzes the impact of small parties' participation in coalition governments on their electoral support. Although in multiparty systems, small parties can enter power through coalitions, the advantage of large parties can undermine their efforts to advance their demands, and the penalty for an unfavorable compromise will be a loss of votes. Meanwhile, it can be hypothesized that the structural positioning of small parties within cleavage spaces, as well as the use of institutional mechanisms associated with the protection of the rights of junior partners, may influence the variability of small parties' average performance in coalitions. Using regression analysis to study voting dynamics in 12 European countries from 2008 to 2025, we concluded that party families with different positionings and target voters have different chances of winning electorally after participating in a coalition. Moreover, the ideological distance between parties in a coalition serves as the best predictor of their relative success. As we found, green and radical-left parties are more likely to win in coalitions, while right-wing and left-liberal small parties – less. One possible reason for this may be the nature of their electoral base: if a small party relies on protest or pragmatic voting, its chances of winning in coalition are lower than those of a party with more ideological, but still pragmatic support base.

Keywords: parties, populism, партии, coalitions, European politics, европейская политика, коалиции, популизм, party cleavages, party families, партийные размежевния, партийные семейства