Много ли мы тратим на еду? Доля потребления продуктов питания и доходы домашних хозяйств в России в 2001-2023 гг.

Проблемы прогнозирования. 2026. № 2(215). С. 6–22.

Ternovskiy D., Aleksandrova P., Voskoboynikov I., Nikulina Y., Метляхин А. И., Pankova D.

The work analyzes the correspondence between the share of food expenditure in Russia and per capita household income using the Engel curve. Generally, taking into account possible measurement errors, household behavior follows the classical empirical relationship observed in many countries - as income rises, household food consumption increases, and the share of food costs in total consumption expenses decreases.
The paper identifies four types of measurement anomalies that can distort the results of the Engel curve estimation. Firstly, when considering the long-term macroeconomic dynamics of 2001-2023, the classical empirical relationship is stable and statistically significant if the structural shift that occurred during the 2008 crisis is explicitly taken into account. Secondly, cross-country comparisons of the share of food costs and household income in 2019 showed the absence of abnormally high shares of food costs in Russia. In cross-country comparison, special attention should be paid to differences in income levels, taking into account imputed rents and meals outside the home in the structure of consumer spending. Thirdly, the calculation of the proportion of food expenses depends on the movement of relative prices.. This dependence is especially pronounced between 2001 and 2007. After 2010, the contribution from changes in relative prices becomes weaker. Finally, based on comparisons of parameters of the Engel curve using micro and macro data, systematic bias in macroeconomic estimates was revealed. The economic nature of these shifts is probably related to differentiation of households in terms of total spending and interregional differences in price levels.

Keywords: российская экономика, household income, the Russian economy, потребление домашних хозяйств, закон Энгеля, Engel curves, Engel's law, households consumption, кривая Энгеля, располагаемые доходы домашних хозяйств

Publication based on the results of: The Impact of External Shocks on the Productivity and Social Sustainability of the Russian Economy (2025)