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Прогноз показателей краткосрочного и долгосрочного развития негосударственных пенсионных фондов
Финансы и кредит. 2013. № 48 (576). С. 25-35.
Andreev M.
This article presents a forecast of the main balance sheet accounts for private pension funds: retirement savings, pension reserves, owned capital. The forecast is based on the funds inflow trends for obligatory pension insurance and nongovernmental pension benefits. We have found that the PPFs’ balance sheet will grow rapidly (in terms of GDP) in the coming decades and it can reach 10-30% of GDP in 2050 depending on circumstances. The obligatory pension insurance almost displaces nongovernmental pension benefits. In the short term horizon PPFs can meet serious problems associated with quick growth. In particular there may be problems with the capital adequacy and placing funds in assets with low risk and return (bank deposits)
Keywords: пенсионная системафинансовые рискипрогнозированиеfinancial marketдолгосрочное прогнозированиедостаточность капиталадемографическая структураpension systemeconomic forecastingnon-state pension fundsнегосударственные пенсионные фондыcapital adequacyprivate pension funddemographic forecast
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