МЕТОДЫ СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ В 2 Т. Т.2 МОДЕЛИ И МЕТОДЫ. Учебник и практикум для академического бакалавриата

Т. 2: Модели и методы. M. : Urait, 2016.

Svetunkov S.

In the book deals with modern methods and models of socio-economic forecasting, the most frequently used in practice. Essential part of economic decisions aimed at obtaining results in the future, so to make the right management decisions need to be reliable socio-economic forecasting, which is impossible without knowledge of methods and models. In connection with this prerequisite training of highly economist and manager is to study their discipline "methods of social and economic forecasting."
The second volume contains the basic textbook methods and models used today in the socio-economic forecasting. Consistently provides methods and models short, medium and long-term forecasting how simple models of trends and using factor models. In some groups are identified and methods of forecasting models of evolutionary processes of socio-economic dynamics.
The textbook is designed for students of undergraduate academic, but may be useful to undergraduates, postgraduates and doctoral students, as well as practitioners dealing with the forecasting of socio-economic processes.

Keywords: forecasting, байесовский подход, долгосрочное прогнозирование, вероятностное прогнозирование, социально-экономическое прогнозирование, economic forecasting, forecasting cycles, quality forecasting, краткосрочное прогнозирование, forecasting model, Прогнозирование экономической динамики, long-term forecasting, математическое моделирование и прогнозирование, прогнозирование временных рядов, Temperature, precipitation, forecasting model, forecast errors, methods of analysis and forecasting