Islamic Monarchies, Youth Bulges, and Socio-political Destabilization. A Cross-National Investigation

Comparative Sociology. 2025. Vol. 24. No. 3. P. 327–350.

Andrey V. Korotayev, Alina A. Khokhlova

During the Arab Spring, it has already been well-observed that the Arab monarchies possess stabilization capacity. This article identifies it as not only a regional, but also a confessional factor that all Islamic monarchies have a stabilizing effect on the socio-political dynamics. Moreover, in Islamic monarchies, the share of the young comes out more as a supporting rather than a destabilizing factor, while it is well-known that it leads to a growth of socio-political destabilization in the majority of other countries of the world. The authors explain these results by the fact that
the monarchies of the MENA region, to a large extent, use specific aspects of Islamic doctrine in their narrations and socio-political practices which refer to the cultural, social and political ideals of Islamic societies. The mechanism observed is the following: MENA monarchies deprive the Islamic opposition of a predominant part of their
supporters, while it is common knowledge that the youth in Muslim states are the main target of Islamist movements’ recruitment.

Keywords: Arab Spring, socio-political destabilization, MENA, Islamic monarchies, share of the young

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)