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Статья

Bootstrap confidence sets under model misspecification

The annals of statistics. 2015. Vol. 43. No. 6. P. 2653-2675.
Spokoiny V., Zhilova M.

A multiplier bootstrap procedure for construction of likelihood-based confidence sets is considered for finite samples and a possible model misspecification. Theoretical results justify the bootstrap validity for a small or moderate sample size and allow to control the impact of the parameter dimension pp: the bootstrap approximation works if p3/np3/n  is small. The main result about bootstrap validity continues to apply even if the underlying parametric model is misspecified under the so-called small modelling bias condition. In the case when the true model deviates significantly from the considered parametric family, the bootstrap procedure is still applicable but it becomes a bit conservative: the size of the constructed confidence sets is increased by the modelling bias. We illustrate the results with numerical examples for misspecified linear and logistic regressions.