Intertemporal Three-Product General Equilibrium Model of Russian Economy

International Journal of Arts and Sciences. 2013. Vol. 06. No. 1. P. 125–145.

Андреев М. Ю., Пильник Н. П., Поспелов И. Г., Вржещ В. П., Масютин А. А.

This paper presents a three-product dynamic model of Russian economy. The calculation of the model comes to a boundary problem on a long interval of time for a rigid dynamic system. Thus development of a supercomputer algorithm method is required. The model describes complete system of balances of uniform labor, three products (export, import and interior product) and six financial instruments: cash, operating accounts, loro accounts with Central Bank, bank loans, bank deposits, net deposits with Central Bank and foreign currency. The model describes dynamics of Russian economy as a result of interaction of the following agents: Producer, Bank, Household, Owner, Trader, Government, Central Bank, Exporter and Importer. The quarter model from 2004 to 2011 adequately reproduces such macroeconomic indicators as GDP (Consumption, Investments, Import, Export and their deflators), bank loans, bank liquidity, bank currency accounts, monetary reserve and many other. The main result obtained was the discovery of a strong turnpike property: although in the model we allow agents to know the future, this knowledge is unnecessary for them to find optimal behavior when the parameters of the model are properly identified.

Ключевые слова: ВВП, national accounts, национальные счета, макроэкономическая модель, gdp, general equilibrium, общее равновесие, macroecnomic model

ПУБЛИКАЦИЯ ПОДГОТОВЛЕНА ПО РЕЗУЛЬТАТАМ ПРОЕКТА: Макроструктурное моделирование секторов экономики России (2013)