Winners and losers from the world going green: Index of country-level readiness to energy transition

Energy Research and Social Science. 2026. Vol. 132. Article 104548.

Igor Makarov, Elizaveta Smolovik

The global low-carbon energy transition affects different country groups unevenly, creating significant opportunities for some and exposing others to risks. To capture this asymmetry, we develop an index of readiness to energy transition (RET index) that ranks 133 countries according to their potential gains and losses. The index includes two dimensions: transition assets, which are exposed positively, i.e., clean energy potential, abundance in critical metals and minerals, and negatively, namely dependence on fossil fuels and fossil fuel intensive industries, carbon intensity of economies, as well as adaptation potential. The resulting ranking of countries provides useful insights into countries' standing in low-carbon energy transition. Most of developed countries gain from high adaptation potential and limited carbon-intensive transition assets, making them resilient to low-carbon transformation. China occupies a unique position, benefiting from strong clean energy potential and dominance in the global critical materials landscape. On the contrary, many emerging and developing economies face high transition risks due to fossil fuel dependency, high overall carbon intensity and relatively weak technological and institutional capacities. The RET index thus highlights these asymmetries, emphasizing the importance of targeted international support and differentiating mitigation ambition levels under just energy transition framework.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerability, energy transition, index design, just transition, transition risks

Publication based on the results of: Risks and opportunities for Russia's socio-economic development in integrated scenarios of climate change and low-carbon transformation of the global economy (2024)