Взаимосвязи России с ЕС, США, Китаем и АСЕАН в международных производственных цепочках

Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики. 2023. Т. 27. № 4. С. 527–549.

Gnidchenko A.

The paper is devoted to studying the links of Russian economy with EU, USA, China and ASEAN in intermediate trade. The statistical basis is the OECD Trade in Value Added Database that contains a set of inter-country input-output tables for 2018. Such data allow tracking inter-country trade flows for 67 countries and 45 industries by the direction of use (the data help to see which industries act as consumers of intermediate products). The analytical apparatus is based on input-output analysis and matrix algebra. The methodology of the study is based on calculating the Leontief and Ghosh input-output multipliers – not for the global economy as a whole, but for the regional blocs of countries, and also with a focus on the role of Russia as a consumer and supplier of intermediate products. The three matrices reflecting the value-added distribution (the ‘source-sink’ matrix, the ‘source-assembly’ matrix and the matrix of domestic and foreign contents of a country’s final good exports) are also calculated.

The conclusions regarding the importance of Russia’s links with the mentioned countries and country blocs in various industries and in different roles (consumer or supplier of intermediate products) are the following. For Russia, industries that are sensitive to intermediate imports are machinery, rubber and plastics, and textiles. Computer equipment and electronics extensively rely on Chinese intermediate goods, while the automotive industry depends primarily on intermediates from EU and other countries (Japan, South Korea). Russia is an important supplier of intermediate resources such as fuel, ores, metals, chemical products, timber industry products. China primarily relies on Russian primary energy and forest resources, while EU uses a wide range of fuels and metals, and USA extensively imports metals and chemi­cal products. Russia is embedded in global value chains mainly as an exporter of intermediate products and a consumer of final goods and services. Importance of intermediate imports for production or exports from Russia is limited.

Keywords: внешняя торговля, foreign trade, межотраслевой баланс, мультипликатор, input-output tables, Multiplier

Publication based on the results of: Analysis and forecasting of the Russian economy dynamics, its most important sectors in the conditions of adaptation to systemic sanctions and the increasing need to modernize its structure, as well as the measures taken by the government anti-crisis policy (2023)