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Эволюция Аль-Каиды: между региональными конфликтами и глобалистской перспективой
The article is devoted to the analysis of the prospects for the evolution of the odious terrorist group of modern times, Al-Qaeda. This topic seems relevant, as the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and Asia continue to serve as an "ideal" environment for the development of radical groups and ideologies. Based on a detailed study of the history of the formation of this organization, its ideology, goals, objectives and strategy, the authors consider the possibility of Al-Qaeda becoming the dominant force in the global extremist movement in the coming years. The article examines the main stages of the activity of this group, presents the results of a comparative analysis of the tactics of Al-Qaeda and its main competitor, ISIS. It is concluded that the strategic goal of Al-Qaeda is to strengthen unity among foreign fighters of the global extremist movement. Al-Qaeda's tactics in relation to civil wars demonstrate the organization's ability to be pragmatic. The interweaving of local problems with the problems of global jihad has contributed to the development of relations and stable alliances of Al-Qaeda in a number of countries and regions. By engaging in some conflicts that are both fundamental and highly symbolic, Al-Qaeda can further strengthen its image as the "true" vanguard of Islamist insurgents. The article pays special attention to the relationship of Al-Qaeda with its branches in Iraq, Algeria, Yemen and South Asia. The creation of branches, in addition to such obvious advantages as demonstrating "worldwide reach" and growing influence, has a number of negative aspects. The authors' conclusions are based on an analysis of publications and speeches in the media space by the leader of the radicals, A. az–Zawahiri. The authors conclude that modern Al-Qaeda is a decentralized, networked transnational terrorist organization. The conclusion is made about the possibility of Al-Qaeda entering a new phase of activity, which will include strengthening territorial control, expanding recruitment and high-profile terrorist attacks around the world.