Метод прогнозирования вероятностей актуализации последствий принятых решений в условиях неопределенности

Менеджмент в России и за рубежом. 2013. № 6. С. 21–29.

Madera A. G.

A new method to predict the probabilities of future events that are consequences of the subject, are presented. The method is based on combining the two types of forecasts – forecasted events using statistical data predictions for previous periods, as well as subjective, using expert estimates, using new information. Shows that an objective forecast is the ultimate objective probabilities of future events whose values do not depend on the initial priors and are its eigenvector of the matrix reliability predictions, the expert in charge of its eigenvalue, equaled one. An example of applying the method is given.

Keywords: forecasting, принятие решений, прогнозирование, вероятность, probability, decision, Eigenvalue, собственное значение, future event, eigenvector, будущие события, собственный вектор