Child Benefits as a Tool for Reducing Child Poverty in Russia: Microsimulation Analysis

Population and Economics. 2024. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 155–177.

Kartseva M., Kuznetsova P., Ekaterina A. Seredkina

The paper uses a microsimulation approach to assess the impact of child allowances on child poverty in Russia. The empirical basis of the paper is the data of the nationally representative Sample Survey of the population's income and participation in social programmes conducted by Rosstat. It is shown that in the period 2014-2021 child allowances reduced child poverty, but their impact was very limited. As part of the analysis of possible directions of development of the child allowance system, the paper conducts a scenario analysis of the impact of universal, categorical, targeted and combined allowances on child poverty. For each scenario, the impact is compared with the cost of paying the benefit. It is shown that in conditions of budget constraints, a combined benefit with universal payments for younger children and targeted payments for older children may be the most promising.

Keywords: child poverty, детская бедность, детские пособия, child benefits, универсальное детское пособие, адресное пособие, микросимуляции, universal child benefit, targeted benefit, microsimulations