Modelling and economic risk estimation for accidents in underground building construction and exploitation

IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering (MSE). 2018. Vol. 365. P. 042–076.

Vartanov S., Петров И. В.

In order to estimate the probability of anthropogenic accidents during the process of underground works and the corresponding damage, the mathematical model of accident risk should include not only technological and geophysical parameters of the object of interest, but also level of labor discipline of workers and the internal technological rules of the enterprise. In our previous works we developed a game-theoretic model of underground mining enterprises. But the part of the model concerning the risk of accident and the corresponding damage was assumed "exogenous", and was previously never discussed. In this paper we develop the models of underground accidents emergence and damage caused by them, basing of the classic Ruin theory (Cramer-Lundberg model of Poisson risk process). As a result of our research we develop the analytical expressions allowing to give a numerical assessment to technical and economic characteristics of the enterprise working in especially dangerous conditions. We found the analytical expressions which give a numerical estimation of possible damage from accidents of anthropogenic nature, depending on different technologic strategies of the enterprise and on the workers' behavior.

Keywords: mining, risk estimation