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Technologies: Limitless Possibilities and Effective Control
This chapter examines technologies’ current and future development in the framework of the Cybernetic Revolution—the third of the largest production (or technological) revolutions after the Agrarian and Industrial ones. The Cybernetic Revolution is a fundamental transition from industrial production to the production of services and goods based on the widespread implementation of self-regulating systems, that is, systems that can function in the absence or with minimum involvement of people and independently make complex decisions. This transition has already started and will continue up to the 2070s. The Cybernetic Revolution began its active development in the 1950s and has now finished its modernization phase. At the moment, the key technologies are information and communication technology and artificial intelligence, whose role in society is gradually increasing, and they come with benefits and potential risks. However, Grinin & Grinin assume that from the 2030s, the new—final— phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will start. Its major technological breakthroughs will lead to self-regulating systems’ formation and widespread implementation. So, Grinin & Grinin assume that new technologies will emerge. They forecast that it will be a set of technological spheres, and the MANBRIC complex/convergence is taking shape and will actively develop in the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (in the 2030s–2070s). The MANBRIC is an abbreviation formed from the initial letters of the seven breakthrough areas: Medicine-Additive-Nano-Bio-Robotics-Info-Cognitive technologies. These technological fields closely interact and corroborate each other and will continue to do so increasingly in the future. Due to its specific characteristics, medicine will be an integral part of the MANBRIC complex. Grinin & Grinin also offer some scenarios for further technological development. They significantly depend on the areas where technological breakthroughs will start. The main developmental scenario is presented as a breakthrough that will occur in the 2030s in the field of medicine, especially at the nexus of its new directions and some areas of the MANBRIC. There will be the introduction of innovations based on selfregulating systems in various fields of social activity (economy, medicine, biology, and socio-administrative structures). Grinin & Grinin describe the most favorable scenario and recommend how to move toward this scenario.
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