Влияние миграции на человеческий капитал и интеллектуальный потенциал населения регионов Российской Федерации

Вестник Южно-Российского государственного технического университета (Новочеркасского политехнического института). Серия: Социально-экономические науки. 2022. Т. 15. № 2. С. 7–23.

Письменная Е. Е., Рязанцев С. В., Smirnov O., Мирязов Т. Р., Смирнов А. В.

The aim of the study is to assess the impact of migration inflow and outflow of population on human capital and intellectual potential of Russian regions as a whole and their individual socio-demographic characteristics. The methodology of the study is based on the materials of a sociological survey of experts and data from Rosstat statistics on population migration. Research result. It was revealed that only 16 subjects of the Russian Federation (about 19 %) have a positive migration balance. In the rest of the Russian regions (81 %), there is a migration decline in the population. Three types of Russian regions are distinguished according to the contribution of migration to the formation of demographic potential: with the predominant role of migration in the formation of the demographic potential of the region; with a parity balance of migration growth and natural population decline; with a partially compensatory contribution of migration growth to the total population growth. Based on the analysis of statistical data on the structure of migration growth by level of education, five types of regions were identified: regions that actively «pull in» a significant number of migrants with higher professional education, including people with a candidate and doctoral degree; attracting people with higher professional education to a greater extent than losing them; with zero growth of migrants with higher professional education; with the outflow of people with higher professional education; with active «washout» of the population with higher professional education. Based on a sociological survey of 100 experts from among representatives of scientists, civil servants, businessmen in 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the role of migration in the formation of human capital and intellectual potential was revealed. The general conclusion of the study is that migration has an ambiguous effect on these parameters: not only migration outflow, but sometimes migration inflow of the population negatively affect the human potential of the regions, but they do this with varying degrees of intensity. We see prospects for further research of the problem in a more detailed study of the impact of migration on the human potential of Russian regions.

Keywords: человеческий капитал, интеллектуальный потенциал, миграционный прирост, intellectual potential, migration outflow, миграционный отток, human capital, migration inflow