Обзор российских и мировых долгосрочных прогнозов в сфере здравоохранения (обзор литературы)

Здравоохранение Российской Федерации. 2023. Т. 67. № 3. С. 187–194.

Potapchik E.

In the 21st century, more and more attention is paid to long-term forecasts for the development of countries, regions and the world as a whole; the scope of their application is expanding, including the coverage of social sectors, and, above all, healthcare. Acquaintance with the existing foreign and domestic practice of developing long-term forecasts can be useful not only for those involved in their development, but also for decision makers in the healthcare sector.

Aim: generalization and systematization of published long-term forecasts in healthcare.

Material and methods. Systematic search for publications according to the developed protocol. The protocol included databases of peer-reviewed publications, search terms, and search restrictions. The search for publications was carried out in the databases of Embase, Medline, Scopus, RSCI, etc. The search strategy included a combination of the terms "free text" and "Medical subject heading" related to the definition of long-term forecasts in healthcare. The main search restrictions were the language of publications, the date of publication and the forecast period covered. Conducting a comprehensive analysis, generalization and systematization of the information received on published foreign and domestic long-term forecasts in the field of healthcare, covering forecasts for the world as a whole, its regions and the Russian Federation.

Results. The most widespread are long-term forecasts in certain areas of healthcare development. Comprehensive forecasts covering several aspects of system development are less common. Quantitative forecasting methods are used more often, qualitative methods are mainly used in forecasting the technological development of the sector.

Conclusion. Studying international experience, strengthening the Russian institutional base for conducting comprehensive long-term forecasts in healthcare will contribute to a better understanding of possible scenarios for the sector development and increase the state ability to respond in a timely manner to the economic, environmental and social changes taking place in the country.

Keywords: здравоохранение, долгосрочный прогноз, healthcare, long-term forecasts, methods of long-term forecasts, методы долгосрочного прогноза

Publication based on the results of: The impact of new epidemiological and economic conditions on the organization of medical care (2023)