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July 9, 2026
HSE Economists Use Search Queries to Forecast Birth Rates
Researchers from the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences have shown that the accuracy of birth rate forecasts for Russia can be improved by almost 50% by incorporating the dynamics of online search queries related to pregnancy and childbirth into forecasting models. In the best-performing models, the forecasting error fell from 4.6% to 3.2%. The findings have been published in Populations and Economics.
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Программа «Земский доктор» как фактор миграции врачей на периферию регионов Центрального федерального округа

Демографическое обозрение. 2022. Т. 9. № 4. С. 104–125.
Sharepina E.

The “Zemsky Doctor” program is celebrating the 10-year anniversary in 2022. Along with positive effects, researchers and experts have some concerns about its implementation and the controversial results achieved. Existing studies describe a socio-demographic profile of participating doctors without reference to the motivations and destination of relocation. This contradicts the integrated approach of migration process proven in the theory of push-pull factors of migration by E. Lee. This work presents a classification of relocation strategies under the Program, which include: the motivation for relocation (pull and push factors); circumstances that complicate the process of moving; socio-demographic characteristics of migrant doctors and their migration intentions. The research is based on biographical interviews with program participants and expert interviews with heads of medical institutions and its human resources departments from 9 regions of the Central Federal District in Russia. In five of the six outlined strategies, decision of migration is a combination of factors that goes beyond financial motivation. There are mostly two types of doctors who remain to work: those who are interested in moving to a larger or main city and those who have to move from the previous city (they use funds as start-up capital) including those who get paid upon their return home due to family matters or in order to take up employment according to their conditional scholarships and employee reimbursement obligation agreement. Those doctors who only participate in the Program in order to receive financial payments prefer the pendulum transfers or consider their relocation as temporary. The practical conclusion of the article is that compensation programs should be complemented with non-economic incentives to make it more efficient.

Research target: Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology
Language: Russian
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Keywords: internal migrationвнутрироссийская миграцияinternal migration in Russiaкадровое обеспечение системы здравоохранения; кадровая политика в сельском здравоохранении; экономическое стимулирование медицинского персонала; привлечение и закрепление медицинских работников в сельских и отдаленных районах; программа «Земский доктор»миграция врачейmigration of doctorsProfessional migrationshortage of physiciansмиграция на периферию
Publication based on the results of:
Manifestations and determinants of well-being and disadvantage of various population groups in modern Russia (2022)
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