ТРЕНДЫ РАЗВИТИЯ МИР-СИСТЕМЫ С ПОЗИЦИИ МАКРОИСТОРИЧЕСКОГО ПОДХОДА: КРАТКИЙ АНАЛИЗ

История и современность. 2022. № 2. С. 124–138.

Садовничий В. А., Akaev A., Ильин И. В., Малков С. Ю., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A.

This article discusses the methodological approach on the basis of which the report to the Club of Rome studies the processes taking place in the world in recent decades. This approach is called macro-historical by the authors. It is based on the analysis of ongoing processes in a broad and long-term historical context, as well as building forecasts of future development based on macro-historical trends and patterns of their change. At the moment, the World-System is just going through such a painful turning point in its development, it is at the point of bifurcation. The authors emphasize the need for a comprehensive analysis that takes into account not only long-term trends, but also the interaction of all important factors, driving forces and spheres (ecology, climate, technology, demography, economics, sociosphere, politics, ideology, culture, etc.) that affect macro-historical development, and also try to identify the specific influence of each of them in a certain period. Therefore, the purpose of the macro–historical approach is to link the mutual influences of various factors into a single picture; such an analysis makes it possible to better understand the processes taking place in the world, the reasons for the change of previous trends and to more clearly imagine the prospects for further development of the World System. The article emphasizes that it is necessary to take into account macro-historical and evolutionary paradigms, patterns and trends, and presents some results of such an analysis.

Keywords: development, факторы развития, Мир-Система, World-System, development factors, cоциально-экономическое развитие, macrohistorical approach, макроисторический подход