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Introduction. New Wave of Revolutions in the MENA Region in the Global Perspective
P. 1–31.
Publication based on the results of:
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Ilya Medvedev, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2026 P. 1–49
This study investigates which structural factors most strongly predict armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as Asia using country–year data for 1950–2022 and a set of economic, demographic, political, and climatic indicators. It employs an interpretable machine learning framework (CatBoost with SHAP values ...
Added: June 1, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Korotayev A., Хайруллин Т. Р., Shelkovnikov A., Восток. Афро-азиатские общества: история и современность 2025 № 1 С. 195–207
The article analyzes the Saudi-Emirati alliance formed after the events of the Arab Spring as a reaction to the strengthening of the Turkish-Qatari alliance. The common point of contact in the process of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE was the fear and suspicion of the transnational organization Muslim Brotherhood supported by Qatar and ...
Added: April 20, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Andrey Korotayev, Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Медведев И. А., Ufimtsev A. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2025 Т. 24 № 1 С. 71–105
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary ...
Added: November 13, 2025
Shishkina A., Journal of Asian and African Studies 2025 P. 00219096251324557–00219096251324557
This article is aimed at analyzing the combinations of factors that triggered the processes of socio-political destabilization of the Arab Spring, and which can be considered in addition to the context of purely economic or political explanations of revolutionary episodes. Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is chosen as a tool for analyzing the data, which allows ...
Added: September 4, 2025
Бемлер Е. С., Социологические исследования 2025 № 7 С. 125–134
The article presents a comprehensive analysis of narratives about adulthood as an age identity and a period of life in the context of contemporary Russia. Particular attention is paid to the age group 40-60 years, which often finds itself on the margins of social research and policy. The study, conducted in a qualitative paradigm, includes ...
Added: May 8, 2025
Хайруллин Т. Р., Коротаев А.В., Азия и Африка сегодня 2025 № 3 С. 14–21
The article examines another round of destabilization in Somalia caused by conflicts amid territorial and economic disputes over Somali ports, as well as contradictions between federal and regional authorities. It is shown that the deal concluded in early 2024 between Ethiopia and unrecognized Somaliland led to a serious round of tension that threatened to escalate ...
Added: March 19, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025
Vladimir B., Соломатин А. И., Вестник международных организаций: образование, наука, новая экономика 2020 Т. 15 № 3 С. 72–108
In recent years there has been a steady growth of “multi-bilateral aid,” or voluntary earmarked contributions transferred by international donors through multilateral organizations. The World Bank Group’s financial intermediary funds (FIFs) and trust funds have gained an especially wide recognition and have been particularly instrumental in channelling aid to fragile states - a priority group ...
Added: January 26, 2025
Vladimir B., Современная Европа 2020 № 6 С. 76–89
The article explores official development assistance flows from European countries to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and highlights certain specifics and the logic of redistribution of resources and roles between the largest European donors throughout the 2010s - since the Arab Spring, which transformed the political landscape of the entire region. This trend ...
Added: January 26, 2025
Vladimir B., Восток. Афро-азиатские общества: история и современность 2021 № 4 С. 95–106
This paper reconstructs the history of the Deauville Partnership with Arab Countries in Transition - a unique multilateral format established at the 2011 G8 Summit in Deauville, France to help the countries affected by the Arab Awakening navigate through the transition. It identifies the Partnership’s particularities, main objectives, pillars and key phases. The conclusion is ...
Added: January 24, 2025
Kondakova K., Yankova A., В кн.: Китайская Народная Республика: политика, экономика, культура. 2023.: М.: ИКСА РАН, 2024. С. 427–451.
С точки зрения концепции концентрических кругов, Африка и Ближний Восток находятся на дальних границах геополитической повестки дня КНР. Хотя контроль над ними не является жизненно важным для Пекина и легитимности КПК, они предоставляют Китаю несколько ключевых возможностей для экономического роста и международного влияния. К тому же эти страны традиционно являются проводниками для продвижения китайских глобальных ...
Added: November 15, 2024
Shishkina A., Asia and Africa today 2024 Vol. 7 P. 49–56
This article is aimed at studying the inclusion of women in the processes of political participation using the example of the Arab Spring protests. New information technologies and, in particular, social media allowed women to participate in the Arab Spring demonstrations as organizers, activists and journalists. Due to the fact that men in the re- ...
Added: November 11, 2024
Издательство "Учитель", 2021.
Revolutions have always played a significant role in the life of societies, but this role has become especially important since the XVI century. In other words, since the early Modern period, the role of revolutions as a driving force of progress has increased dramatically. However, in the following centuries, their role in the transformation of ...
Added: October 8, 2024
Korotayev A., Ustyuzhanin V., Grinin L. E. et al., / Series " ". 2024.
There are grounds for stating that in the 21st century a new ("fifth") generation of revolution studies has emerged. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are: a tendency towards a macro approach (both in the historical and geographical sense) together with a systemic approach; the research of separate important types of ...
Added: September 15, 2024
Ustyuzhanin V., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series PS "Political Science". 2024.
In the field of civil war studies, there is now a consensus that the risk of war decreases as average income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of unarmed revolutions, which dominate the revolutionary process of our time. This can be explained by the fact that the researchers assumed a ...
Added: June 10, 2024