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Критерии и методы декомпозиции динамики макроэкономических показателей
Высшая школа экономики
,
2005.
№ 02.
Motorin V.
The paper studies a new optimization-based approach to macroeconomic time-series analysis on the basis of additive representation of any initial time-series by the sum of calendar, seasonal, oscillating, irregular and trend components. The special attention is paid to prior component properties analysis and elaboration of sequential decomposition criteria that provide direct handling of formalized properties as constraints of mathematical programming problems. An illustrative example of structural dynamics model of domestic industrial production index in 19952004 is given.
Glutsyuk A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
B.Josephson (Nobel Prize, 1973) predicted a tunnelling effect for a system of two superconductors separated by a narrow dielectric (such a system is called Josephson junction): existence of a supercurrent through it and equations governing it. The overdamped Josephson junction is modeled by the family of differential equations on the 2-torus, dθdτ=1ω(cosθ+B+Acosτ), which is known as ...
Added: September 8, 2026
Pochinka O., Shmukler V., / Series math.RT "arXiv:1808.06395 [math.RT]". 2026.
Anosov flows have a long and rich history, firstly motivated by the
study of geodesic flows in negative curvature surface by Anosov and Sinai.
Not every closed manifold admits an Anosov flow for well-known reasons:
the fundamental group of a 3-manifold M admitting an Anosov flow must
have exponential growth, and M must be universally covered by R3. Nevertheless,
there ...
Added: August 31, 2026
Vagin S., Экономика и предпринимательство 2022 № 9 С. 86–90
The article presents a study on the assessment of the main statistical indicators on the effectiveness of the development of the production process in the industry of Russian regions in recent years, associated with the negative impact of the pandemic on industrial production. Conducting research on the development of Russian industry in the regions in ...
Added: July 29, 2026
Vagin S., Вестник Университета (Государственный университет управления) 2023 № 9 С. 103–112
The article presents an assessment of the main statistical indicators related to the efficiency of industrial production growth in various regions of Russia over the past few years. The inclusion of digital achievements in the context of the negative consequences of the recent pandemic and sanctions on the production of industrial enterprises is also considered. ...
Added: July 29, 2026
Zhuravleva T., Afanasev K., Engelmann J. et al., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Extortionary ("harassment") bribery can persist even when widely condemned, consistent with a coordination problem sustained by beliefs about what others do and what others consider acceptable. We study whether a minimal institutional featurethe presence of a third-party monitor empowered to punish-shifts (i) normative expectations about extortion and compliance and (ii) empirical expectations about their prevalence. ...
Added: July 22, 2026
Loubenets E. R., / Series arxiv.org "quant-ph". 2026. No. 2607.18050.
In many quantum applications it is important to know whether or not a Bell nonlocal two-qudit state exhibits its nonlocality under correlation scenarios with some given numbers S1,S2≥1 of generalized quantum measurements at two sites. In the present article, we find analytically a new general locality condition sufficient for a nonseparable Werner state with a ...
Added: July 21, 2026
Bolbachan V., / Series math "arxiv.org". 2024.
Chow polylogarithms are some special functions arising in explicit description of the Beilinson regulator map. The most interesting functional equation for this function reflects its vanishing on the boundary in the Bloch's cycle complex. We show that this functional equation formally follows from more simple ones, namely skew-symmetry, functoriality and multiplicativity.
To prove this, we study ...
Added: July 16, 2026
Bolbachan V., / Series math "arxiv.org". 2024.
Let K be a field of characteristic zero. We prove that its motivic cohomology in degree m−1 and weight m is rationally isomorphic to the cohomology of the polylogarithmic complex. This gives a partial extension of A. Suslin theorem describing the indecomposable K3 of a field. ...
Added: July 16, 2026
Panov V., Ryabchenko A., / Series arXiv "stat.ME". 2026. No. 2607.05048.
This paper investigates the problem of statistical inference for a mixture distribution consisting of a discrete and a continuous component, with a particular focus on the class of rational-infinitely divisible distributions. We consider non-parametric estimation of both components of the mixture as well as the quasi-L{é}vy measure, assuming that the mixture belongs to the class ...
Added: July 9, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Kim J., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Within narrowly defined industries, the most productive firms produce far more than the least productive from the same inputs, and this dispersion widens in downturns. We build a tractable representative-agent model in which financial frictions—adverse selection and moral hazard—make firms sort endogenously into lenders, strategic defaulters, and producers. As credit conditions vary, the resulting misallocation ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Власов С. А., Nevalennyi M., Сафиулин Р. Р. et al., / Банк России. Серия Аналитическая записка "Материалы Банка России". 2026.
В аналитической записке обсуждается долгосрочно устойчивый уровень цены на российскую нефть. Это тот уровень, к которому цена нефти, вероятнее всего, будет тяготеть в долгосрочной перспективе. Потребность в его определении возникает по нескольким причинам. Во-первых, цена на нефть остается одним из ключевых экономических показателей российской экономики, определяющих экспорт, обменный курс рубля, прибыль, доходы и расходы бюджета, ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Глазова А. М., Nevalennyi M., Синяков А. А., / Банк России. Серия Препринты Банка России "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2025. № 154.
The paper proposes a graphical model of a small open economy. The dynamics of the graphical model is then illustrated using impulse responses from the corresponding formal semi-structural model (QPM model). The authors have several goals in preparing this description of the graphical macroeconomic model. The first goal of the paper is to present an adapted ...
Added: June 27, 2026
Mishin A., Guerrieri L., Canzoneri M. et al., / Series 2026-042 "Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS)". 2026.
Added: June 27, 2026
Konakov V., Kucher D., Mammen E., / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2606.11142v1.
In this paper, we construct strong approximations for discrete-time Markov chains weakly converging to continuous diffusion processes, as well as for their perturbed counterparts. Under the assumption of bounded coefficients, we construct closely coupled versions of these processes on a shared probability space. In particular, for both non-degenerate and degenerate cases, we maximize the probability ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Bogatyrev R., Sandomirskaia M., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series EC "Economics". 2026. No. 19(1).
This work develops a tractable model of price competition in fragmented markets where consumers consider both local and distant varieties, with cross-regional purchases subject to stochastic costs. Global competition and full localization emerge as polar cases; hybrid competition is not merely intermediate and exhibits distinctive features such as an endogenous price ceiling and non-monotonic entry ...
Added: June 11, 2026
Kravtsova M., Musaev A. U., Welzel C., / Series "SSRN Working Paper Series". 2026.
Elaborating on Welzel et al.'s "Cool Water Theory," our study zooms into the more limited (albeit still varied) framework conditions of Russia's huge territory. Within Russia's confines, we examine how the combination of moderately cool seasons with steady rain (i.e., Cool Water) affects sub-national areas' contemporary societal progress in two modernization indicators: material prosperity in ...
Added: June 3, 2026
Синяков А. А., Зверева В., Шелованова Т. И., / Центральный банк Российской Федерации. Серия 132 / 2024 "Серия докладов об экономических исследованиях". 2024. № 132.
At the end of 2023, Russia updated its Strategy for Improving Financial Literacy and Developing Financial Culture Until 2030. Unlike the previous strategy, the current strategic goals include not only financial literacy but also financial culture. ‘Culture’ is normative and socially preferred behaviour. The updated strategy brings into focus the relationship between financial literacy and responsible financial behaviour. To explore this relationship, the authors rely on data from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finance (2020 and 2022). Socially ...
Added: June 1, 2026
Vorchik A., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This work is devoted to a theoretical explanation of the Easterlin paradox, according to which long-term economic growth does not make average level of people's happiness increasing. By happiness, we mean the intensity of emotions people experience while comparing their new income with its expected value, or the target income with its original value. In the first case, ...
Added: May 31, 2026
Dorovskiy A., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
In this paper the structural stability of generic families of vector fields of the PC-HC class on the two-dimensional sphere is proved. A classification of these families up to moderate equivalence in neighborhoods of their large bifurcation supports is presented, based on such invariants as the configuration and the characteristic set. The realization lemma is proved. ...
Added: May 14, 2026
Taletskii D., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
A vertex subset of a graph is called a \textit{distance-$k$ independent set} if the distance between any two of its distinct vertices is at least $k + 1$. For all $n,k \geq 1$, we determine the minimum possible number of inclusion-wise maximal distance-$k$ independent sets among all $n$-vertex trees. It equals~$n$ if $n \leq k ...
Added: May 1, 2026
Ovcharenko M., / Series arXiv "math". 2026.
We introduce an explicit class of tempered Laurent polynomials in the sense of Villegas and Doran--Kerr in n⩽4 variables including all Landau--Ginzburg models for smooth Fano threefolds with very ample anticanonical class. We check that it contains Landau--Ginzburg models for various Fano fourfolds which are complete intersections in smooth toric varieties and Grassmannians of planes, ...
Added: April 30, 2026
Zlotnik Alexander, / Series arXiv "math". 2026. No. 2602.03481v1.
We deal with the global in time weak solutions to the 1D compressible Navier-Stokes system of equations for large discontinuous initial data and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions of three standard types. We prove the Lipschitz-type continuous dependence of the solution $(\eta,u,\theta)$, in a norm slightly stronger than $L^{2,\infty}(Q)\times L^2(Q)\times L^2(Q)$, on the initial data $(\eta^0,u^0,e^0)$ in a ...
Added: April 18, 2026
Makeeva N., Экономика и математические методы 2026 Т. 62 № 2 С. 58–72
This study analyzes the accuracy of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for annualized quarterly GDP growth rates in 33 developing countries over the period from Q1 2013 to Q4 2023. The research evaluates the out-of-sample accuracy of various models (MIDAS, MFBVAR, DFM, regularization-based models, a classical pairwise regression and first-order autoregression model) using the last ...
Added: April 19, 2025
Агеев А. И., Золотарева О. А., Глазьев С. Ю. et al., Экономические стратегии 2023 № 1 С. 16–25
Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. ...
Added: July 16, 2024