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Построение модели прогноза курса валют на долгосрочном и краткосрочном горизонтах
Экономические стратегии. 2023. № 1. С. 16–25.
Агеев А. И., Золотарева О. А., Глазьев С. Ю., Митяев Д. А., Переслегин С. Б.
Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.
Коротаев А.В., Бурова А. Н., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 Vol. 122 No. 3 P. 160–178
The article analyzes the course and consequences of the events of the “Arab Spring” in Morocco and provides answers to two main questions: can these events be classified as a revolutionary episode, and, if so, was it successful, and to what extent? After examining the relevant historiography and comparing the approaches, concepts, and definitions of ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Stremoukhov D., Черников П. Е., Стародубцев А. В., Политическая наука 2026 № 3 С. 206–233
Over the past two decades, Russian urban renewal policy has evolved from fragmented and weakly demanded initiatives – such as Integrated Territorial Development (Kompleksnoe Osvoenie Territorii, KOT) and Development of Built-Up Areas (Razvitie Zastroennykh Territorii, RZT) – toward the formation of a large-scale nationwide mechanism of Integrated Territorial Development (Kompleksnoe Razvitie Territorii, KRT). This article ...
Added: October 7, 2026
Diskin E., Прожерин Д. В., Теоретическая и прикладная юриспруденция 2026 Т. 29 № 3 С. 221–234
Introduction: Drawing on the legal orders of the United States, the European Union, and the Russian
Federation, the article provides a comparative legal analysis of three regulatory models governing the
use of unmanned aircraft (UA; drones, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)) by public authorities for government oversight: the U.S. model, based on a combination of aviation rules and ...
Added: October 6, 2026
De Gruyter, 2026.
Post-Soviet Eurasia is one of the world's most geopolitically consequential and rapidly transforming regions. Developments across it increasingly reshape political, economic and social relations far beyond its borders. Understanding these dynamics is therefore both intellectually urgent and analytically demanding, requiring an interdisciplinary approach capable of moving beyond established categories and fragmented national perspectives.
This handbook provides ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Diskin E., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 3 С. 23–45
Public governance of digital platforms is characterized by a growing tension between security imperatives, such as blocking, throttling, and restricting the activities of foreign platforms, and development imperatives, including the digital economy, innovation, and users’ rights. The article conceptualizes this contradiction as a security—development dilemma: a structural problem of governance that cannot be reduced to ...
Added: October 5, 2026
Автухова Е. Э., Larionov A., Плачинда К. Д., М.: Экономический факультет МГУ им. М.В. Ломоносова, 2026.
Данное методическое пособие разработано в соответствии с рабочей программой курса «Банковское дело», реализуемого на Экономическом факультете МГУ имени М. В. Ломоносова по специальности «Экономика» (бакалавриат), и может быть рекомендовано для подготовки к семинарским занятиям и самостоятельной работе студентов. ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Kaspe S. I., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 138–167
This article examines the stereotypes about China that prevail in the West and Russia and make them perceive it not only as a strategic challenge, but an existential threat. The article demonstrates that the most common fears are overstated and counterfactual, and that they are grounded in the West itself. Modern China cannot be identified ...
Added: October 4, 2026
Мусиева Д. М., Akaev A., Век глобализации 2025 Т. 56 № 4 С. 3–15
В работе дана кратчайшая история взаимоотношений Китая и США, которые за 40 лет прошли путь от экономического сотрудничества до глобального противостояния. Проведен анализ современного экономико-техно-логического и социально-политического состояния данных стран, показавший, что Китай как восходящая держава и США, находящиеся на нисходящей траектории, сегодня являются примерно равновеликими по совокупной мощи. Делается вывод о том, что нынешнее ...
Added: October 2, 2026
Yenikeyeff S., Russia in Global Affairs 2026 Vol. 24 No. 4 P. 10–41
This article maps the contours of the global energy order that may emerge by 2040. It argues that global energy flows are being transformed from a price-driven commodity trade into instruments of strategic power by four simultaneous processes: an uneven low-carbon transition, the securitization of energy flows, the fragmentation of the international monetary system, and ...
Added: October 2, 2026
Baklanov A., Международная жизнь 2026 № 9 С. 4–15
This article, using materials from the Russian Foreign Ministry archive, analyzes the origins, dynamics, and outcomes of the 1956 Suez Crisis. It emphasizes the crucial importance of the Soviet Union's harsh demarche against Great Britain and France, which forced London and Paris to cease their aggression against Egypt. It examines the approaches of various states ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Kazun A. D., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 № 3 С. 80–98
The article analyzes media skepticism and media cynicism as two forms of critical attitudes toward news. The empirical basis of the study is a nationwide population survey (N = 6,007) conducted in late 2023 and early 2024. The analysis shows that both media skepticism and media cynicism are pronounced in Russian society: while a substantial ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Balakina Y. V., Коммуникации. Медиа. Дизайн 2026 Т. 11 № 3 С. 24–44
This article explores the role of multimodal media texts (MMT) in political communication. MMT are seen as a blend of cultural and symbolic forms, manifested through various semiotic modes such as text, image, sound, and their combinations in the media space. The goal is to elucidate how these texts construct social reality and their functions ...
Added: October 1, 2026
Korotayev A., Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2026 Vol. 17 No. 2 P. 1–38
This paper examines the striking mathematical correspondence between two independently derived hyperbolic equations describing global evolutionary dynamics: Panov's time series of "biospheric revolutions" spanning 4 billion years of biological and cultural evolution, and von Foerster's famous "Doomsday" equation for world population growth (1960). Both phenomena are governed by equations of the form y = C/(2027 ...
Added: September 29, 2026
Shishkina A., Issaev L., Journal of Globalization Studies 2026 Vol. 17 No. 1 P. 145–156
This article is aimed at discussing the global and regional aspects of Islamic modernization. The study discusses the transformation of ideas about the role of women in the public space by the case study on the North Caucasus. The attitudes of traditional society, the influence of Soviet power, the role of Islamization, both early and ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Diskin E., Закон 2026 № 1 С. 92–123
In the January Legal Chronicle our authors comment on several significant legal events that happened at the end of 2025: decisions of the Constitutional Court No. 31-P on the payment of dividends on preferred shares, No. 41-P on VAT, No. 46-P on the fate of seized property in bankruptcy cases; discussion in the EU Council ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Gribkova D. E., Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления 2026 № 3 С. 151–176
Global challenges, economic security risks, sociodemographic and environmental processes, and accelerating technological development are creating a fundamentally new context for Public Administration that demands knowledge-based decision-making. The growing interest in proactive and predictive governance has led to the active use of science and technology foresight. However, the governance of scientific and technological development still faces ...
Added: September 28, 2026
Bagrov A. N., V. A. Gordin, Svetlova N. A. et al., Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 2026 Vol. 51 No. 1 P. 33–40
A technology for operational complex forecasting (postprocessing)1 of squall wind gusts at the points of weather station location in described. The technology was implemented at the Hydrometeorological Research Center of Russia. It uses the results of forecasts of several forecast models and the complex forecast of average wind. The tests have shown an increase in ...
Added: February 17, 2026
Kanaev E., Луконин С. А., Куприянов А. В. et al., В кн.: Россия и мир: 2026. Экономика и внешняя политика. Ежегодный прогноз.: М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2025. С. 177–196.
The chapter forecasts the evolution of the Indo-Pacific Asia in 2026. ...
Added: January 30, 2026
Kanaev E., Афонцев С. А., Богданов К. В. et al., М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2025.
The report "Russia and the World: 2026" is the twenty-fourth in a series of annual publications of IMEMO. The report consists of three parts: global trends, economy and foreign policy. The main focus is on issues of key importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the immediate (2026) and longer term. ...
Added: January 30, 2026
Данилевич Т. В., Yasnitsky L., М.: Юрайт, 2025.
This course examines both the historical aspects of science and current philosophical issues related to its contemporary development and impact on society. It describes the emergence of science and its progressive advancement, its adoption by society, and the introduction and dominance of scientific achievements in all areas of human activity. Particular attention is paid to ...
Added: December 19, 2025
Belousov D., Аблаев Э. Ю., Abramova E. et al., Проблемы прогнозирования 2025 № 2 С. 98–117
Статья описывает результаты количественных расчетов в соответствии со сценарными прогнозами мировой и отечественной экономики, а также российского сектора информационнокоммуникационных технологий (ИКТ). На основе сценарных условий определены количественные параметры прогнозов развития отечественного сектора ИКТ в четырех сценариях: «максимальном» (целевой сценарий), «осторожного роста», «умеренной экспансии» и «кризисном» (худший из возможных) с учетом их характерных особенностей. ...
Added: September 19, 2025
Shchankina A., Вопросы экономики 2026 № 1 С. 80–98
The article shows the structural changes in the relationship between the mortgage rate and MIACR, identified in the analysis of the dynamics of weighted average mortgage rates (published on the website of the Bank of Russia) in Russian regions for 2022-2025. The rates of residential mortgage loans and MIACR were multidirectional, and fluctuations in mortgage ...
Added: September 3, 2025
Makeeva N., Экономика и математические методы 2026 Т. 62 № 2 С. 58–72
This study analyzes the accuracy of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for annualized quarterly GDP growth rates in 33 developing countries over the period from Q1 2013 to Q4 2023. The research evaluates the out-of-sample accuracy of various models (MIDAS, MFBVAR, DFM, regularization-based models, a classical pairwise regression and first-order autoregression model) using the last ...
Added: April 19, 2025
Габов М. А., Bukina T. V., Kashin D., Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации 2025 № 4(69) С. 87–117
The study aims to compare approaches to forecasting the monthly level of consumer price index (CPI y/y) in the regions of the Volga Federal District using time series models and machine learning methods. This study attempts to select the most appropriate and efficient models for predicting the regional general price level index. The paper also ...
Added: February 22, 2025