Некоторые вопросы методологического обеспечения управления стоимостью банков на российском рынке финансовых услуг

Вопросы статистики. 2022. Т. 29. № 4. С. 84–96.

Polyakov K., Polyakova M. V., Загонова Е. А.

In the introduction, the authors argue the relevance of the researched problem of improving the algorithm for estimating transaction cost of bank’s purchase and sale in the Russian financial services market. It is emphasized that the need to manage the value of a commercial enterprise arises not only when planning the purchase and sale transaction of the entire business or part of it. The valuation is taken into account, first of all, when corporatizing an organization, attracting new shareholders, insuring its property, obtaining a loan secured by property, calculating the fair value of taxesю The first part of the paper substantiates the business valuation algorithm intended for a potential investor and adapted to the conditions of the Russian financial market. This takes into account the specific features of each bank in question. Based on the data from open financial statements (for 2017–2022), the parameters required in the procedure for obtaining estimates are calculated. The second part of the paper presents the result of selecting indicators of the external and internal economic environment of banks that have a significant statistical relationship with the resulting valuation. The selected factors are under the control of managers and can be used
to guide the proposed cost estimate. Data were obtained on the direction and strength of influence of selected factors on the value of business. The selection algorithm is based on mathematical modeling using bank data for the period under consideration. The valuation is based on a comparative approach, where the values of the multiples are calculated using a linear regression model. To organize cost management, a panel regression model is built, which allows to select significant financial indicators and determine the nature of their impact on the bank's value.

Keywords: оценка стоимости банка, панельные данные, business valuation, оценка стоимости бизнеса, income approach, доходный подход, статистика финансов, дисконтирование денежных потоков, multiplier method, метод мультипликаторов, Monetary and financial statistics, panel data, financial services market, mathematical and statistical methods, bank valuation, discounting cash flows, рынок финансовых услуг, математико-статистические методы