Потенциал биоэнергетики в декарбонизации экономики России

Экономическая политика. 2022. Т. 17. № 6. С. 90–111.

Safonov G., Kozeltsev M. L., Поташников В. Ю., Dorina A., Semakina A., Сафонова Ю. А., Sizonov A.

Russia is one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases in the world whilepossessinga vast potential for using zero-carbon energy resources, including biofuels. Under the UN Paris Agreement, in order toprevent global warming above 1,5-2°C, Russia announced a carbon neutrality target by 2060. Analysis of the low carbon development scenarios based on the partial equilibrium TIMES-Russia model demonstrated that the cost-effectivepathways of deep decarbonization of national economy are not possible without extensive biofuels. Bioenergy utilization together with energy efficiency improvement, solar and wind power, carbon capture and storage technologies allows reducing domestic energy CO2 emissions by 80-90% below 2010 levels by 2050. The rich natural resource base and unique technologies provide the opportunities to increase production of “green” bioenergy in Russia to the levels comparable with total nuclear and hydropower plants by 2050. The Russia’s competitive advantages allow to become a world leader in modern bioenergy markets, especially in the context of green energy transition, decarbonization of global economy and international carbon pricing. However, the role of bioenergy is underestimated in Russia, it is not considered as a priority in the Energy Strategy – 2035 and the Low Carbon Development Strategy by 2050. This study provides more adequate estimates of the bioenergy potential in fulfilling the Paris Agreement commitments and deep decarbonization of Russia’s economy.

Keywords: экономика России, моделирование, modeling, greenhouse gases, парниковые газы, decarbonization, декарбонизация, биоэнергетика, Russian economy, Парижское соглашение, Paris Agreement, bioenergy