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On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues
Science and Public Policy. 2012. Vol. 39. No. 2. P. 208–221.
Saritas O., Amanatidou E., Butter M., Carabias V., Konnola T., Leis M., Schaper-Rinkel P., van Rij V.
Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today’s complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
Veronica M. Sytnik, Proskuryakova L. N., European Journal of Futures Research 2024 Vol. 12 Article 21
This study focuses on the integration of methods from different theories and research
concepts into futures studies in order to better understand the obscure future through
the identification of unpredictable and hard-to-predict rare events and factors.
Particular emphasis in this study is placed on systems theory, cybernetics, synergetics,
theory of chaos, bifurcation theory, catastrophe theory, thermodynamics, and the
theory of ...
Added: November 30, 2024
Doell K., Todorova B., Vlasceanu M. et al., Scientific data 2024 Vol. 11 Article 1066
Climate change is currently one of humanity’s greatest threats. To help scholars understand the psychology of climate change, we conducted an online quasi-experimental survey on 59,508 participants from 63 countries (collected between July 2022 and July 2023). In a between-subjects design, we tested 11 interventions designed to promote climate change mitigation across four outcomes: climate ...
Added: August 15, 2024
Marina Boykova, Knyazeva H., Salazkin M., Foresight and STI Governance 2023 Vol. 17 No. 4 P. 80–91
The challenges the futures studies face are particularly complex, interconnected, and contradictory, and cannot be resolved using linear approaches. Prognostic science needs tools matching the new contextual complexity, which would allow to capture a much wider range of driving forces, and their potential effects, in a non-linear perspective, to improve the accuracy of forecasts and ...
Added: January 25, 2024
Dmitriev A., Lebedev A., Kornilov V. et al., Complexity 2023 Vol. 2023 Article 3315750
Many real-world systems of various origins are capable of self-organization to the edge of a phase transition, characterized by avalanche-like behavior. Therefore, it is important, by observing the behavior of early warning measures for dynamical series generated by systems, to timely see the early warning signals (precursors) of such self-organization and, if necessary, take preventive ...
Added: January 18, 2024
Vlasceanu M., Doell K., Bak Coleman J. et al., Science advances 2024 Vol. 10 No. 6 Article eadj5778
Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from ...
Added: December 12, 2023
Dmitriev A., Lebedev A., Kornilov V. et al., Frontiers in Physics 2023 Vol. 11 Article 1274685
Many different precursors are known, but not all of which are effective, i.e., giving enough time to take preventive measures and with a minimum number of false early warning signals. The study aims to select and study effective early warning measures from a set of measures directly related to critical slowing down as well as ...
Added: October 29, 2023
Dmitriev A., Lebedev A., Kornilov V. et al., Complexity 2022 Vol. 2022 Article 8177307
Critical phenomena in stock exchange are regularly occurring and difficult to predict events, often leading to disastrous consequences. The presented paper is devoted to the search and research of early warning signals of critical transitions in stock exchange based on the results of a multifractal analysis of a series of transactions in shares of public ...
Added: October 28, 2022
Dmitriev A., Kornilov V., Dmitriev V. et al., Frontiers in Physics 2022 Vol. 10 No. 839383 Article 839383
The sandpile cellular automata, despite the simplicity of their basic rules, are adequate mathematical models of real-world systems, primarily open nonlinear systems capable to self-organize into the critical state. Such systems surround us everywhere. Starting from processes at microscopic distances in the human brain and ending with large-scale water flows in the oceans. The detection ...
Added: March 14, 2022
Bredikhin S. V., Futures 2020 Vol. 124 P. 1–12
We set out to establish the place of Weak Signals at the conceptual intersection between the fields of futures and complexity studies as a qualitative counterpart to the so-called Early Warning Signals (of regime shift). After briefly presenting the scope of the Weak Signal concept and associated problems with positioning such a controversial construct against ...
Added: September 8, 2020
Efimenko I., Khoroshevsky V. F., International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management 2017 No. 14
A novel domain-independent approach to technology trend monitoring is presented in the paper. It is based on the ontology of a technology trend, hype cycles methodology, and semantic indicators which provide evidence of a maturity level of a technology. This approach forms the basis for implementation of text-mining software tools. Algorithms behind these tools allow ...
Added: August 17, 2020
Sedik D., Lerman Z., Yanbykh R. et al., , in: Handbook of International Trade and Agricultural Policies.: Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd, 2018. P. 120–138.
Handbook of International Food and Agricultural Policies is a three-volume set that aims to provide an accessible reference for those interested in the aims and implementation of food and farm policies throughout the world. The treatment is authoritative, comprehensive and forward looking. The three volumes combine scholarship and pragmatism, relating academic writing to real-world issues ...
Added: December 10, 2018
Vishnevskiy K., Milshina Y., Saritas O. et al., / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2018. No. 89/STI/2018.
The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well ...
Added: October 25, 2018
Kuzminov I., Loginova I., Khabirova E., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. 88.
This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in ...
Added: October 3, 2018
Kuzminov I., Bakhtin P. D., Khabirova E. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2018. No. WP BRP/80/STI/2018.
The article presents the results of the study of radical innovations in the global food industry which were obtained through semantic analysis of heterogeneous unstructured text data sources by applying innovative big data text mining system. The approach used allows performing rapid, yet comprehensive aggregation of the whole polyphony of existing knowledge of the technology ...
Added: March 20, 2018
Gershman M., Thurner T., Public Money & Management 2018 Vol. 38 No. 2 P. 157–160
Engineering and industrial design services are closely connected to both an economy’s value and level of employment. While the global market for engineering services is growing steadily, the Russian engineering and industrial design market is very fragmented. Russia began a targeted policy for engineering and industrial design in 2013 to support service providers who were ...
Added: January 17, 2018
Saritas O., Gokhberg L., Bakhtin P. D. et al., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2016. No. 68.
In parallel to the developments in the Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), mobile commerce (m-commerce) has become a large business and technology area with ever-growing market potentials. Comparable to the rest of the world, the m-commerce sector has been developing rapidly in Russia, which provides opportunities for domestic and international enterprises. There are a number ...
Added: October 20, 2016
Miles I. D., Saritas O., Sokolov A., , in: Foresight for Science Technology and Innovation.: Netherlands: Springer, 2016. P. 63–94.
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Added: September 23, 2016
Ponomareva Y., Sokolova A., / NRU Higher School of Economics. Series WP BRP "Science, Technology and Innovation". 2015. No. 46.
This research explores the key stages and methods for the identification of weak signals (WS) and wild cards (WC) in foresight methodology. Theoretical approaches and practical projects in this field were studied, key characteristics and features of these concepts were identified. A review of potential data sources for the monitoring of WS and WC were ...
Added: September 7, 2015
Saritas O., Proskuryakova L. N., Кызынгашева Е. С., / NRU HSE. Series SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION "SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION". 2015. No. 35.
Water resources are crucial for the continuity of life. Humans and living species need fresh water for drinking and sanitation, while industries in most sectors of the economy need water for some part of production processes themselves. Access to fresh water is a grand challenge at the global level, mainly due to increasing water consumption, ...
Added: June 30, 2015
Vilenskiy A. V., Вопросы экономики 2014 № 11 С. 95–106
The Russian system of state support for small and medium-sized businesses in its scope, forms and methods has reached the level of developed countries. This system set up the basis for the new wave of small businesses foundation, ongoing since 2008. But the continuing increase in the amount of small businesses is going along with ...
Added: January 16, 2015
Efimenko I., Vladimir Khoroshevsky, Ena O., , in: Proceedings of the 4th Global TechMining Conference (Leiden, Netherlands).: Leiden: [б.и.], 2014.
Automated identification of new technology trends (trend monitoring, trend hunting, trend watch) is among the hot topics in technology management. Despite many beneficial results in this field, almost no solutions allow users to escape from getting too general or garbage results which make it impossible to identify trends at the stage of weak signals. Lack ...
Added: October 23, 2014
Saritas O., Miles I. D., Foresight 2012 Vol. 14 No. 6 P. 489–510
The current paper aims to present the Scan-4-Light study, which was conducted for the systematic scanning and analysis of the Searchlight newsletters as a rapidly growing collection of articles on trends and topics in development and poverty. Built upon the concept of the systemic foresight methodology, the Scan-4-Light approach involves the integrated use of horizon ...
Added: December 27, 2012