Конец эпохи энергетического угля

Мировая экономика и международные отношения. 2021. Т. 65. № 11. С. 40–48.

Sinitsyn M.

The global COVID-19 pandemic has led to the acceleration of the world energy balance restructuring at the expense of lowering demand for coal. Coal is crowded out from energy consumption for both climatic considerations as well as because of the strong harmful effect of coal power plants emissions on health. Developed and an increasing number of developing countries strengthen and expand complex of measures aimed at coal energy displacement: emissions trading systems and direct emissions tax, Coal Plant Directive and closures of coal mines. Decorbonisation has been acselerated after Pittsburgh Summit, 2009 and Paris Agreement, 2015: by 2020, developed countries have largely abandoned direct subsidies for coal consumption, and all major international development banks have limited their involvement in coal-fired generation and have stopped considering coal mining projects. Developing countries continue support coal consumption and production in order to maintaine economic growth and employment.  Excessive supply will lead to overstocking of the coal market, lower prices and slowdown of the decline in coal consumption after COVID-19. Although several largest economies in the Asian-Pacific Region, primarily China, India and Indonesia, continue to increase coal generation capacities (HELE plants), the analysis in the article shows that after the accomplishment of the recovery growth in the world economy by 2025, global demand for energy coal will start to steadily decline. Increasing High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions coal plants demand is rapidly risen requirements to coal quality.

Keywords: Китай, США, European Union, China, Евросоюз, уголь, coal, выбросы парниковых газов, US, топливно-энергетический баланс, energy balance, COVID-19, низкоуглеродная парадигма, low carbon paradigm, green house gases emissions, COVID-19