Перспективы экологической модернизации экономики России

Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2022. № 4 (56). С. 195–201.

Safonov G., Поташников В. Ю., Сафонов М. Г., Стеценко А. В., Kozeltsev M. L., Dorina A., Semakina A., Sizonov A.

Development of the Russian economy over the last 20 years has led to a significant increase in negative impacts on the environment. The international community has adopted agreements aimed at enhancing the transition to sustainable development. The new transformation of world economy leads to fundamental changes in key industries, changing business models, investment processes, transfer of the financial flows towards “green” growth. These processes may result in significant losses of export revenues, lack of access to international finance, and rising divestments from Russia. The authors' calculations based on the TIMES model showed that Russia is capable to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75-88% below 1990 level by 2050. The annual costs of decarbonization are estimated at $12 billion by 2030 and $48 billion by 2050. The transition to a green model will ensure a more sustainable, environmentally balanced development of the Russian economy and fulfillment of international commitments under the environmental conventions and agreements.

Keywords: Россия, изменение климата, Russia, климатическая политика, экологическая модернизация, climate change, climate policy, decarbonization, декарбонизация, ecological modernization