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Исследование взаимосвязи кредитных циклов с изменениями кредитных рейтингов
Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2020. Т. 48. № 4. С. 138–160.
Karminsky A. M., Dyachkova N.
The purpose of this study is to identify relationships between
changes in ratings and the impact of credit cycles on them. The following methodology
was used: we built up an applied statistical probit-model of multiple-choice to
determine ratings changes. Our model includes a credit gap indicator for assessing the
impact of the credit cycle. Our empirical research also includes a review of the time
changes in the ratings during a ten-year period for developed and developing countries.
The results of our study show that credit ratings are not only affected by cyclical
changes within the credit cycle, but also are delayed in its relation to the cycle. From a
practical point of view, these results indicate the practical need to take into account various
macroeconomic factors because of the impact of credit cycles for forecasting and
risk management in financial markets.
Кумар В., MSW Management 2026 Vol. 36 No. 1s P. 1746–1753
This study explores how profitability, export efficiency, and cost functionality correlated with the financial sustainability index (FSI) for Indian manufacturing companies and the development of the early warning system. The study was conducted on 50 Indian manufacturing companies those participate in the export business, whose data has been collected for the nine quarters from 2023 ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Tekic A., Nguen C. M., Business Horizons 2026 Article In Press, Journal Pre-proof
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms face intense pressure to internationalize, yet the traditional playbook—lengthy R&D cycles, costly market research, and standardized campaigns—often struggles to deliver local relevance at speed. This article argues that crowdsourcing—digitally mediated, large-scale consumer participation—can complement established internationalization tools by mobilizing local knowledge and community endorsement to mitigate key aspects of the ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Ulanov V. L., Springer, 2026.
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Semerikova E. V., Салов А. И., The Journal of the New Economic Association 2026 Vol. 1 No. 70 P. 221–237
In this paper, we assess the extent of agglomeration externalities that
mirror on labour productivity gains while accounting for the direct and indirect effects
of transportation exposure. To this end we combine data on the local average wage and
employment with comprehensive information on the public transportation and road networks
of the Saint Petersburg Metropolitan Area, one of the ...
Added: May 19, 2026
Voytenkov V., Emerging Markets Review 2026 No. 101482 P. 1–37
This paper examines the effects of the 2008, 2014, and 2020 crises on household consumption patterns in Russian regions. The micro-level analysis is conducted using quarterly data from Rosstat's Household Budget Survey. Dependent variables are expenditure on food at home, out-of-home, alcohol, non-food items, services. Explanatory variables are household characteristics and dummy variables that capture ...
Added: May 18, 2026
Lodiagin B., Nazarova V., Rincon C. J., URBAN, PLANNING AND TRANSPORT RESEARCH 2026 Vol. 14 No. 1
This study applies an established social cost–benefit analysis (CBA), combined with sequential shock scenarios (COVID-19 and the post-2022 sanctions) and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, to evaluate the welfare robustness and recovery dynamics of the Pulkovo Airport PPP renovation project (St. Petersburg, Russia). Using traffic, operations, and cargo forecasts through 2040, we compare a pre-shock baseline ...
Added: May 17, 2026
Brodetskiy G., Gerami V., Shidlovskii I. et al., Транспорт: наука, техника, управление 2026 № 3 С. 3–8
В статье предложен специальный метод модификации процедур многокритериальной оптимизации. Он позволяет расширить набор критериев выбора, чтобы учитывать предпочтения лица, принимающего решения (ЛПР) как раз в моделях транспортного обеспечения работы цепей поставок. Реализуется изменение наклона направляющей для линий уровня критерия выбора в пространстве значений частных критериев (с нацеливанием выбора на утопическую точку). Разработаны и представлены требуемые ...
Added: May 17, 2026
Федоров Н. С., Финансовый журнал 2025 Т. 17 № 6 С. 99–112
The DCF model is one of the most commonly used models in valuing companies for investment deci sions. Nevertheless, estimating the accuracy of this model remains an important research question. This article presents an assessment of the accuracy of DCF model specifications based on analyzing the variance of fair share prices of companies listed on ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Федоров Н. С., Финансы и бизнес 2025 Т. 21 № 3 С. 34–50
Currently, the role of artificial intelligence is increasingly playing a significant role in various fields, including the increasing role of machine learning in finance. On the other hand, company valuation remains an important part of research due to its difficulty in correctly predicting the accuracy of target stock prices. This study provides an analysis of ...
Added: May 15, 2026
Kopnova E., Османова А. О., В кн.: Цифровая экономика как драйвер экономического и социального развития: материалы IV международной научной конференции.: М.: МГИМО (У) МИД РФ, 2023. С. 130–151.
The work is devoted to the study of the ruble bank deposits market in Russia as a tool for attracting domestic monetary resources to stimulate economic growth. The analysis of the share of the studied banks in the total volume of ruble deposits made it possible to assess the concentration of the market, to identify ...
Added: January 23, 2026
Ozerov K., Кутенко С. В., Деньги и кредит 2024 Т. 83 № 4 С. 98–118
Under limited data, the classical cohort method for the creation of migration matrices does not fully reflect the dynamics of the credit quality of the objects within the sample. This problem is exacerbated for objects of lower credit quality less represented in the sample. This paper investigates a continuous time approach to the creation of ...
Added: December 20, 2025
Pastukhov E., , in: Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives.: Springer, 2024.
This study seeks to identify and analyze trends in the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) globally, with a particular emphasis on emerging markets such as Russia. We examined the impact of CBDCs on the liquidity of Russian commercial banks, driven by a noticeable gap in existing research on this topic. Focusing on Russia ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Дерюгина Е. Б., Ponomarenko A. A., Деньги и кредит 2019 № 2 С. 28–42
Мы тестируем способность индикаторов раннего предупреждения, фигурирующих в литературе, прогнозировать пики кредитных циклов на выборке стран с формирующимися рынками и проверяем наши выводы с помощью перекрестной проверки. Наши результаты подтверждают, что стандартный показатель кредитного разрыва применим для такого прогнозирования. Более того, мы обнаруживаем, что в экономиках с формирующимися рынками получить более надежный прогноз, используя расширенные ...
Added: March 28, 2023
Karminsky A. M., Khromova E., Kudrov R., , in: Eurasian Business and Economics Perspectives. Eurasian Studies in Business and EconomicsVol. 19.: Springer Publishing Company, 2021. Ch. 9 P. 139–161.
The work is devoted to credit risk modeling of international banks by constructing ordered logistic models of credit ratings assigned by the agencies: Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch ratings. It was demonstrated that mapping the credit ratings into a base scale helps to decrease the possible subjectivity of CRAs and increases models’ forecasting power. ...
Added: November 1, 2021
Khromova E., , in: Recent Advances of the Russian Operations Research Society.: Cambridge: Cambridge Scholars Publishing, 2020. Ch. 11 P. 177–196.
Added: October 31, 2021
Khromova E., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2020 Vol. 14 No. 4 P. 31–46
The paper is devoted to mapping of Russian banks’ credit ratings to default probabilities for different time horizons by constructing empirical dynamic calibration scale. The paper is based on a random sample of 395 Russian banks (86 of which defaulted) for the period of 2007-2017. The scale proposed by this paper has three superior features ...
Added: October 27, 2021
Podrugina A., Экономическая политика 2021 Т. 16 № 4 С. 8–41
Protracted credit crunch after the 2008–2009 crisis is considered as one of the most significant determinants of a sluggish rise in advanced economies. The credit cycle represents a key element of the business cycle, determining capital accumulation fluctuations. The article analyzes recovery trends of credit activity in the EU, and identifies two groups of countries: ...
Added: September 6, 2021
Akhmetov R., Mamonov M. E., Pankova V., Вопросы экономики 2021 № 6 С. 5–31
This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely ...
Added: July 9, 2021
Podrugina A., Tabakh A. V., Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики 2020 Т. 24 № 4 С. 598–621
The article analyzes the behavior of the credit cycle in the period after the global financial crisis, as well as the consequences of changes in the «inter-crisis» period of 2010–2019 for the future credit cycle after new economic recession in 2020 caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The «credit crunch» phase, defined as a period of reduced ...
Added: December 27, 2020
Pivnitskaya N., Teplova T., Вестник Московского Университета Серия 6 Экономика, МГУ 2020 № 6
This article studies the contagion effects on the emerging financial markets of the Asian region. The contagion effect is manifested in the change of interconnection degree of financial markets after the shock is realized in one of the countries of the region. In our work, we consider the information about a potential or actual change ...
Added: October 19, 2020
Ichkitidze Y., Krakovich V., Romanyuk K., Финансы и бизнес 2020 № 3 С. 40–60
The paper presents analysis of existing default probability estimation models. Their advantages and disadvantages for application to the Russian companies are considered. As a result of this analysis the new model of corporate default probability estimation is developed. The model is based on forecasting financial indicators. The model was tested on the US companies. The ...
Added: April 23, 2020
Grishunin S., Karminsky A. M., Dyachkova N., В кн.: IX Московская международная конференция по исследованию операций (ORM2018). Москва, 22 – 27 октября 2018 г. Труды.Т. 2.: М.: МГУ, МАКС Пресс, 2018. С. 317–321.
Данная работа посвящена изучению вопроса о связи кредитных рейтингов и финансовыми показателями промышленных компаний. В основу исследования был взят один из современных методов построения нелинейных взаимосвязей для выделения групп разнородных объектов влияния, также известный как метод паттернов. Дополнительно, было проведено эконометрическое оценивание выделенных разнородных групп, полученных паттернов промышленных компаний, с помощью модели Тобина. Результаты работы ...
Added: October 29, 2019
Молодико К.Ю., НАУКОВІ ЗАПИСКИ НаУКМА (Украина) 2011 Vol. 116 P. 90–94
В статье проанализированы положения нового Налогового Кодекса Украины о отношении коммерческих банков, предложен ряд поправок в кодекс, необходимых для развития банков в общественно полезном направлении. ...
Added: December 1, 2018
Kudryashova A., Solntsev Sergey, Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2019 Vol. 13 No. 2 P. 50–65
This paper examines profitability as a factor in the turnover of poorly-performing executives in Russian banks, and how this acts as a mechanism of good corporate governance. It is intended to identify and measure the relative effects of different determinants on executive turnover, and thus highlight the practical sets of circumstances where turnover is most ...
Added: October 22, 2018