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Systemic Stress in the EU under the COVID-19 Pandemic: the Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions
P. 388–396.
Mukhametov O.
After the announcement of the COVID-19 pandemic the volatility in financial markets has increased significantly, which has caused the intensification of the systemic financial stress in the EU countries. European central bank (ECB) has taken several measures, including expanding asset purchase programs to mitigate the negative effects of the coronavirus crisis. The significant increase in asset purchases has stabilized financial markets, which returned to pre-crisis levels after a surge in volatility. This paper examines the impact of ECB extended quantitative easing on indicator of systemic financial stress in EU countries. The paper presents a panel vector autoregression (PVAR), which includes the indicator of systemic stress and the change in the balance sheet of the Eurosystem as the endogenous variables. The analysis has demonstrated that changes in the volume of asset purchases did not have a statistically significant effect on the indicator of systemic stress. However, these results can inevitably be considered only as preliminary, since a more detailed study requires a longer and more structured time series.
In book
Osipova O. Atlantis Press, 2020.
Egorov A., Karminsky A. M., Vlasov A., FINTECH 2026 Vol. 5 No. 1 P. 1–22
Amidst the escalating geopolitical fragmentation of the global financial system, divergent stablecoin architectures are emerging. This study employs Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and introduces a formalized ‘Geopolitical Stablecoin’ (GPSC) model to conduct a systematic comparison of three representative cases: A quasi-sovereign asset within a coordinated closed-loop system, a commercial asset with global open-market circulation, and a ...
Added: March 30, 2026
Shchepeleva M., Procedia Computer Science 2025 No. 266 P. 447–455
We investigate the transmission of systemic stress in a sample of selected advanced and emerging market economies for the period between August 2008 and June 2024. Using national SRISK indices, we estimate high-dimensional vector autoregressions and conduct Granger causality tests. We display the lead-lag linkages among the countries as a network and examine its topology. We find that ...
Added: February 12, 2026
Lapteva E., Pilnik N., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 5. Экономика 2025 Т. 41 № 3 С. 340–363
The article systematizes, synthesizes, and compares the results of studies aimed at modeling and assessing the effectiveness of macroprudential policy both at the level of individual countries and in a cross-country context. It provides an interdisciplinary review that integrates empirical findings with theoretical frameworks of macroprudential regulation, offering a novel analytical perspective on its effectiveness ...
Added: June 30, 2025
Shchepeleva M., Procedia Computer Science 2024 Vol. 242 P. 51–56
We test the predictive performance of different ensemble methods for forecasting systemic risk in Russia for the period 2008-2024. In contrast to the existing research on machine learning ensemble techniques, we find that conventional random forest works better for the Russian data. Based on this model, we additionally conduct variable importance analysis. We identify that ...
Added: June 17, 2025
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Journal of Finance and Data Science 2024 Vol. 10 Article 100144
We identify robust predictors of global systemic risk proxied by conditional capital shortfall (SRISK) among a comprehensive set of commodity prices for the period between January 2004 and December 2021. The search is based on a battery of ML variable selection algorithms which apply both to price levels and price shocks in the presence of ...
Added: February 20, 2025
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Environmental and Sustainability Indicators 2024 Vol. 22 Article 100389
The paper studies the relationships among the composite indicators of environmental performance, financial development, systemic risk and economic uncertainty for a balanced panel of 57 countries during 2010–2020. The analysis builds on panel local projections by Jord´ a (2005). In addition to the whole panel, this technique also applies to two sub-panels obtained via the ...
Added: May 22, 2024
Choi S., Phiri A., Teplova T. et al., International Review of Economics and Finance 2024 Vol. 91 P. 348–363
Using the spillover index, we investigated the relationship between Islamic equity markets and unconventional monetary policy(UMP) in five advanced economies. We documented that the spillovers among equity markets (“intraconnectedness”) are stronger than the spillovers among equity markets and monetary policy (“interconnectedness”), based on a static analysis of both returns and volatility. Second, the time-varying total ...
Added: April 27, 2024
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Parfenov D., Economics Letters 2024 Vol. 235 Article 111550
The paper investigates the lead-lag relationships among systemic risk, economic uncertainty and real economic activity for top-5 contributors to global systemic risk, the USA, China, the UK, France and Japan, during January 2010-July 2023. By decomposing these variables into a below- and above-the-median components and applying VAR models to them, we confirm the presence of asymmetric relationships ...
Added: January 30, 2024
Dzhagityan E. P., Mukhametov O., Вопросы экономики 2023 № 12 С. 86–102
Systemic risks in the framework of central banks’ unconventional monetary policy (UMP) have so far received little attention in the extant economic literature. Based on evidence from the UMP of the European Central Bank (ECB), we analyze systemic risks stemming from the difference between materialized systemic risks (financial stress) and their potential level (expected capital ...
Added: November 12, 2023
Dungey M., John H., Volkov V., Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 2019 P. 149–168
We assess the changing nature of the relationships between financial institutions and sovereigns globally using a weighted, directed network of CDS spreads. The framework includes both the strength and direction of the links in the network, allowing us to formally test for evidence on changes in the completeness of the network, for contagion effects, and ...
Added: November 10, 2023
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Annals of Finance 2023 Vol. 19 P. 355–382
We propose sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress for the USA, the UK, Canada, Australia, India, and on the global scale. The global and country-level indicators are based on a novel methodology synthesizing textual analysis of real estate research and Google search data. Using mixed frequency vector autoregressions, we show that in the USA, ...
Added: July 29, 2023
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2023 Vol. 30 No. 39 P. 91466–91477
The paper studies the interaction between a set of bank performance indicators (concentration, profitability, and risk) and the carbon footprint of bank loans. Our research builds on the panel data analysis for 37 countries during 2010–2018, adopting local projections proposed by Jordá (Am Econ Rev 95(1):161–182, 2005), a feasible alternative to panel VAR estimation in case ...
Added: July 29, 2023
Столбов М. И., Shchepeleva M., Вопросы экономики 2022 № 11 С. 136–148
An increasing attention has been riveted recently on so called ESG-factors impacting financial stability. This paper provides a systematic review of the empirical studies which assess the impact of environmental (climatic), social factors as well as various aspects related to corporate governance on financial stability. Overall, higher ESG-rankings, both aggregate and in terms of the ...
Added: November 7, 2022
Dajčman S., Kavkler A., Merzlyakov S. et al., Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 2022 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 227–247
This paper studies the international transmission of the
euro area´s monetary policy and financial stress to Russia. The results
show that financial stress in the euro area damages Russian
economic activity and stock prices, but not its trade balance. The
contractionary euro area monetary policy shock decreases Russian
GDP, leads to real appreciation of the euro against the Russian rouble,
damages ...
Added: September 7, 2022
Karamysheva M., Seregina E., Journal of International Money and Finance 2022 Vol. 127 Article 102696
The impact of prudential policies in open economies depends on their intrinsic efficacy and the spillovers from the close financial partners. Using a sample of advanced economies, we find that prudential policy interventions significantly reduce systemic risk in the financial systems with the impact amplified through a network of financial investment links. Using the Spatial ...
Added: July 15, 2022
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Uddin G. S., Economics Bulletin 2021 Vol. 41 No. 4 P. 2320–2329
The paper studies the relationship between a financial cycle proxy and conditional capital shortfall (SRISK), a popular systemic risk measure, at the global level. Based on causal and directional dependence analyses in the time and time-frequency domains, we find that global financial cycle (GFC) drives SRISK. Besides, the GFC variable appears more useful in forecasting ...
Added: February 10, 2022
Stolbov M., Shchepeleva M., Karminsky A. M., Financial Innovation 2021 Vol. 7 No. 1 Article 41
The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk, industrial production, and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018. We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables, capturing their global effects, and use a novel econometric technique, namely, smooth local projections. The study finds that global macroprudential policy ...
Added: October 31, 2021
Penikas H. I., Финансы и бизнес 2021 Vol. 17 No. 3 P. 50–61
The objective of the current paper is to justify how the natural monopoly regulation principles are worth applying in banking. Tirole required that the natural monopolies gradually reduce their tariffs throughout the years. In relationship tobanking his principle means that the systemically important banks should be required to gradually reduce the risk taken, i.e., to decrease the risk-weights used for the capital adequacy ratio. Such a regulation delivers ...
Added: October 13, 2021
Kolari J., Lopez Iturriaga F. J., Sanz I. P., Economic Modelling 2020 Vol. 91 P. 646–658
A novel measure of systemic risk using mapping and regression methods is proposed. Default probabilities for U.S. banks are aggregated into a single macro measure. Our measure has predictive power to detect systemic volatility prior to the 2008–09 crisis. According to our measure, systemic risk returned to normal levels by 2012. Micro- and macro-prudential measures are useful in assessing ...
Added: October 11, 2021
Merzlyakov S., Kuznetsova O., Pekarski S. E., Russian Journal of Economics 2019 Vol. 5 No. 2 P. 117–135
The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 has changed the landscape for monetary policy. Many central banks in developed economies had to employ various unconventional policy tools to overcome a liquidity trap. These included large-scale asset purchase programs, forward guidance and negative interest rate policies. While recently, some central banks were able to return to conventional ...
Added: June 8, 2021
Dabrowski M., Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium (De Gruyter) 2021 Vol. 11 P. 1–47
Two major economic crises in the early twenty-first century have had a serious impact on monetary policy and CB independence. Disruption in financial intermediation and associated deflationary pressures caused by the global
financial crisis of 2007–2009 and European financial crisis of 2010–2015 pushed central banks (CBs) in major currency areas towards adoption of unconventional monetary policy ...
Added: May 20, 2021