Локальный уровень голосования в России: пространственно-эконометрический подход

Политическая наука. 2021. № 3. С. 229–250.

Korneeva E.

The article presents theoretical and methodological foundations for
the application of the spatial-econometric approach in electoral processes. The analysis
based on spatial-econometric approach that underlies an assumption about interdependence
of processes occurring in adjacent objects. Theoretical framework of research is
devoted to social-political assumptions that allow to explore the existence of interdependence
of political processes occurring in neighboring objects. Empirical research is
accomplished on local constituencies data from all parliamentary elections that took
place in Russia in 1995–2016. The research involves addressing the concept of spatial
autocorrelations – Moran, Geary and Getis – Ord indices. The research focuses on issue
about the degree of spatial differences between regional and local
voting. The results of research demonstrate that there is a high spatial interdependence
in local voting in Russia. A comparative analysis of spatial autocorrelation on local and
regional levels demonstrates that the municipal districts are most prone to spatial interdependence.
This finding allows to trace a hidden tendences on local level of elections.
Such differences between local and regional spatial autocorrelation identify that
regional political regime can be an obstacle on the way of restraining the territorial
distribution of local communities with similar electoral behavior. Finally, the research
proves that the role of place is significant in Russian electoral space.

Keywords: электоральное поведение, электоральное пространство, municipalities, spatial analysis, пространственная автокорреляция, electoral behavior, electoral space, муниципалитеты, Local Level, пространственный анализ, spatial autocorrelations, локальный уровень