Климатический эффект восстановления лесов в дельте р. Или

Известия РАН. Серия географическая. 2021. Т. 85. № 4. С. 579–594.

Липка О. Н., Zamolodchikov D., Каганов В. В., Мазманянц Г. М., Исупова М. В., Алейников А. А.

The scientific rationale for ecosystem-based adaptation projects is comprehensive. This work considers a set of measures aimed at preserving the ecosystems of Lake Balkhash and the Ili River that are vulnerable to current climate change. Adaptation activities, in particular, the restoration of tugai forests, are designed to increase the water-regulating and environmental-forming functions of the Ili River Delta, which will increase the stabilization of the water regime of Lake Balkhash and the resilience of its ecosystems to any climate change scenarios in the region. In addition, forest plantations will accumulate carbon in pools of phytomass, deadwood, litter, and soil. The paper describes the calculation methodology, which makes it possible to predict carbon uptake by the pool of phytomass of the planted forests using fragmentary data on the dynamics of taxation indicators. The obtained values of carbon absorption by the tree phytomass are applied to reforestation scenarios that set the rate of reforestation by tree species. According to the forecasts received, reforestation in the Ili River Delta on the area of 200 thous. ha over 30 years will lead to the accumulation of 7 Mt C by tree phytomass, which corresponds to a normalized absorption of 1.15 t C/ha/year. The mitigation effect of the project is quite sufficient to have independent value.

Keywords: изменение климата, climate change, carbon sequestration, поглощение углерода, лесовосстановление, reforestation, ecosystem-based adaptation, climate projects, адаптация к изменениям климата, климатические проекты