Статистическая модель для оценки формирования климатогенных угроз по данным мониторинга климата

С. М. Семенов; Попов И. О.; Ясюкевич В. В.

?

Статистическая модель для оценки формирования климатогенных угроз по данным мониторинга климата

Метеорология и гидрология. 2020. № 5. С. 59–65.

Semenov S., Попов И. О., Ясюкевич В. В.

A statistical model for the formation of climate-related hazards is proposed. The formation is described by several meteorological variables or applied climatic indices characterizing a calendar year. Their values or data for their calculation are provided by climate monitoring systems. A climate- related hazard arises when these variables or applied climatic indices together go beyond their safe ranges over substantial number of several consecutive years. Respective minimum values for the number of such years are substantiated for different levels of the likelihood of occurrence of a climate-related hazard. The developed methodology was applied to obtain probabilistic estimates of the climatic range of the tick Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758), a vector of dangerous human diseases, and its changes in 2001-2010 as compared to 1971-1980. The results are presented in the form of schematic maps.

Language: Russian

Text on another site

Keywords: изменение климата оценка mapping climate change IXODES RICINUS CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARD STATISTICAL MODEL ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE CLIMATIC RANGE КЛИМАТОГЕННАЯ УГРОЗА КАРТОГРАФИЧЕСКОЕ ОТОБРАЖЕНИЕ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЙ АРЕАЛ СТАТИСТИЧЕСКАЯ МОДЕЛЬ

Climate Change, National Security and Geopolitics: Strategies and Responses of Five Major Powers

Routledge, 2026.

This book is a comprehensive study on how the national security sectors of China, India, Japan, Russia, and the United States have engaged the idea of climate change as an existential threat. Climate Change, National Security and Geopolitics examines the respective ways in which the five states have framed the issue of climate change in ...

Added: May 25, 2026

Soil Temperature, Organic-Carbon Storage, and Water-Holding Ability Should Be Accounted for the Empirical Soil Respiration Model Selection in Two Forest Ecosystems

Sergey Kivalov, Lopes de Gerenyu V., Khoroshaev D. et al., Forests 2023 Vol. 14 No. 8 Article 1568

Soil respiration (SR) is a main component of the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems, and being strongly affected by changes in the environment, it is a good indicator of the ecosystem’s ability to cope with climate change. This research aims to find better empirical SR models using 25-year-long SR monitoring in two forest ecosystems formed on sandy Entic ...

Added: April 24, 2026

European Union and Certain Member States — Certain Measures Concerning Palm Oil and Oil Palm Crop-Based Biofuels (Malaysia); European Union — Certain Measures Concerning Palm Oil and Oil Palm Crop-Based Biofuels (Indonesia), Panel Report

Yury Rovnov, American Journal of International Law 2026 Vol. 120 No. 2 P. 371–379

This is a case note of two WTO panel reports in recent Palm Oil disputes. After providing an overview of the panel findings under Article 2.1 of the TBT Agreement, the note discusses what appears to be a modified legal standard for non-discrimination applied by the panel under this provision and the continued use of ...

Added: April 23, 2026

The Impact of Climate Change and Glacier Degradation on the Water Regime in the High-Mountain Part of the Terek River Basin

Pavlyukevich Ekaterina D., Krylenko I., Motovilov Y. et al., Water Resources 2025 Vol. 52 No. 2 P. S159–S171

A set of hydrometeorological models, has been used to assess the likely changes in Terek River runoff in the 21st century, taking into account climate and glaciation changes in the basin. It has been shown that runoff changes will range from –2 to +5% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and from –8 to +14% under ...

Added: April 3, 2026

Влияние температуры на сезонное развитие древесных растений в Центральном Сихотэ-Алине при изменении климата

Иванов А. В., Марченко А. А., Бондарчук С. Н. et al., Лесоведение 2025 № 4 С. 515–524

For the first time, a variability analysis of phenological dates of woody plant development in connection with climate change was conducted for the conditions of Primorsky Krai. The study is based on a continuous (from 1987 to 2022) series of phenological observations for five tree species from the Nature Chronicle of the Sikhote-Alin Reserve. According ...

Added: February 27, 2026

Quantitative pollen-based reconstructions of climate characteristics and forest coverage for Northern Central Siberia: evaluation of different techniques

Andreev R., Novenko E., Quaternary International 2025 No. 739 Article 109879

The paper presents the application of four quantitative methods for pollen-based palaeoclimatic reconstruction (the Best Modern Analogue technique (MAT), weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WAPLS) transfer functions and Random Forest algorithm (RF)) to derive temperatures, precipitation and total woody coverage (in 5, 10, 20 and 50 km radii) for the poorly ...

Added: February 16, 2026

Proglacial successions of springtail assemblages (Collembola) along retreating glaciers in Kabardino-Balkaria, Greater Caucasus, Russia

Antipova M., Irina S. Bushueva, Babenko A., Nature conservation research. Zapovednaâ nauka 2026 Vol. 11 No. 1 P. 71–92

Since the end of the Little Ice Age, glacier retreat has been recorded globally, with its rates steadily increasing. Glacier forelands serve as convenient areas for studying the patterns of biotic community formation during primary succession. Collembola (hereinafter – springtails) typically play key roles in primary successions, being among the first colonists of territories newly ...

Added: February 12, 2026

The representation of the climate crisis in Croatian online news media

Šarić L., Trnavac R., Frontiers in Communication 2026 Vol. 11 Article 1754352

This study analyzes agency and news values across verbal and visual modalities in Croatian online news on the climate crisis, examining how climate change is portrayed. We explore newsworthiness, visual framing, and metaphor, linking agency to broader concerns about responsibility. In addition, the analysis traces how different types of agency shape news values in both metaphorical and nonmetaphorical micro-contexts. To ...

Added: January 27, 2026

Climate change exposure and corporate strategic aggressiveness: Evidence from Chinese listed companies

Zhao F., Wang J., Chen Q., Economic Analysis and Policy 2025 Vol. 88 P. 26–53

This paper examines the strategic implications of corporate climate change exposure in the context of Chinese listed firms. Drawing on MD&A textual disclosures from 2007 to 2021, we construct a firm-level index of climate exposure and find that greater engagement with climate issues leads to more aggressive strategic behavior. This relationship is robust to a ...

Added: January 15, 2026

Консультативное заключение Международного трибунала по морскому праву об обязательствах государств в связи с изменением климата: комментарий

Rovnov Y., Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 14. Право 2025 Т. 16 № 4 С. 1071–1087

This article comments on the advisory opinion issued by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) on May 21, 2024 on a request submitted by the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS). Seeking to strike a balance between conflicting views of participants in the proceedings, ITLOS ...

Added: December 30, 2025

Угольная энергетика в Европейском союзе в условиях “энергетического перехода” и антироссийских санкций

Lisenkova A. D., Вестник Волгоградского государственного университета. Серия 4: История. Регионоведение. Международные отношения 2025 Т. 30 № 3 С. 212–221

Introduction. This article analyzes the current situation of coal energy in the European Union in the context of its energy transition and anti-Russian energy sanctions. The authors assess the combination of the coal embargo and transformation in the European energy market with ambitions to achieve “climate neutrality.” Methods and materials. The authors predominantly use comparative ...

Added: November 23, 2025