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Концепция риска и визуализация его изменений в докладах Межправительственной группы экспертов по изменению климата
Decision making in the field of limiting anthropogenic impacts on the climate system, including climate itself, requires the estimates of consequences. The assessment of the confidence of estimates is important for the reliable justification of the decisions, in particular for the risk analysis. Such an approach was developed in scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in сontributions of its Working Group II’ Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability’. The paper presents the evolution of the ‘risk’ concept in the IPCC scientific reports and current understanding of risk in the latest special reports of 2018-2019. This understanding is based on the fact that the risk arises from the interaction of three circumstances: the presence of climate-related hazard, exposure of the affected object to the hazard and vulnerability of the object. The main approach used in the IPCC reports for the aggregation and visualization of information on climate related changes in risk levels for natural and socioeconomic systems, as well as for human health, is the construction of ‘burning ember diagrams’, BE-diagrams. Some imperfections of BE-diagrams presented in publications, and insufficient degree of formalization of the procedure for constructing BE-diagrams in the IPCC reports are indicated. BE-diagrams are based on analyzing and summarizing data and information of two kinds: (1) the field observations’ results, experimental and modelling data available from scientific literature; (2) IPCC expert judgements. However, there is no IPCC published clear procedure describing the sequence of steps, staring from (1) and (2), required to assess risks and to build corresponding BE-diagrams. The paper provides an example of such a procedure, i.e. an algorithm for the construction of a visual image summarizing the assessment of adverse effects of climate warming on an agricultural crop, specifically, spring wheat. The approach to construction of BE-diagrams demonstrated with this example can be generalized and used in thedevelopment of BE-diagrams for other elements of natural or socio-economic systems affected by climate change. To ensure transparency of assessments of climate change impacts using BE-diagrams and possibility to repeat the assessments by different groups of users, a special IPCC Guidance note on this issue is needed