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Революция или реформы?
С. 391–479.
The Chapter is devoted to the perception and understanding of the revolution in public thought in Russia of the XIX-early XX centuries.
In book
Т. 3: Общественная мысль России второй четверти XIX – начала XX в. , Российская политическая энциклопедия, 2020.
Коротаев А.В., Бурова А. Н., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2026 Vol. 122 No. 3 P. 160–178
The article analyzes the course and consequences of the events of the “Arab Spring” in Morocco and provides answers to two main questions: can these events be classified as a revolutionary episode, and, if so, was it successful, and to what extent? After examining the relevant historiography and comparing the approaches, concepts, and definitions of ...
Added: October 8, 2026
Korotayev A., Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution UC Riverside 2026 Vol. 17 No. 2 P. 1–38
This paper examines the striking mathematical correspondence between two independently derived hyperbolic equations describing global evolutionary dynamics: Panov's time series of "biospheric revolutions" spanning 4 billion years of biological and cultural evolution, and von Foerster's famous "Doomsday" equation for world population growth (1960). Both phenomena are governed by equations of the form y = C/(2027 ...
Added: September 29, 2026
Kantor V., Философические письма. Русско-европейский диалог 2026 Т. 9 № 2 С. 11–37
This article paints a portrait of Maximilian Aleksandrovich Voloshin (1877–1932), one of the greatest creative figures of the Silver Age, equal in power to the geniuses of the Renaissance. A poet, art historian, and author of works on Surikov, Saryan, and Konchalovsky, poems about Russia, Archpriest Avvakum, Cain, and Our Lady of Vladimir, and articles ...
Added: September 23, 2026
Bogacheva A., Клио 2025 № №2(218) С. 28–32
The article is devoted to the changes in public views on the world of childhood at the turn of the
1850s-1860s, which are broadcast in the children’s magazine “Podsnezhnik”, published by V.N. Maykov. “Podsne
zhnizhnik” was a popular magazine of a ‘new type’. The magazine was not financially supported by government and
was characterized by periodicity, unlike other ...
Added: September 2, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Zinkina J. V., Korotayev A., / Series "SocArXiv". 2026.
“Leaderlessness” is widely held to be a defining feature of contemporary mass mobilization, yet the claim rests on a handful of recent cases. We offer the first systematic cross-national analysis of this phenomenon from 1791 to 2019. We show that the absence of leadership is real but older and more modest than claimed: the share ...
Added: August 29, 2026
Korotayev A., Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Political Studies Review 2026 P. 1–22
In recent years, a kind of “Berlin Wall” has emerged between the study of “revolutions” and “maximalist campaigns.” Although scholars in these two traditions analyze closely related phenomena, they use different terminology, bodies of literature, and empirical conventions. We argue that this separation is analytically costly and prevents fruitful dialogue. On one hand, this leads ...
Added: August 8, 2026
Talking about the [same] revolution? A comparative analysis of main datasets of revolutionary events
Guseinov R., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Defence and peace economics 2026 P. 1–31
We conduct a comparative analysis of the main datasets on revolutionary events, including The Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO, versions 1.3 and 2.1), Cross-National Time-Series (CNTS), Revolutionary Episodes Dataset by Mark Beissinger, Revolutionary Database by HSE University (CSRA), and Historical Regime Data (HRD). To compare these sources systematically, we develop several complementary empirical instruments designed to identify and interpret differences across datasets. We ...
Added: July 17, 2026
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Zhukova O., Философский журнал (Российская Федерация) 2026 Т. 19 № 2 С. 5–22
The article examines one of the key problems of the philosophy of Russian history related to the assessment of the political and moral consequences of the Decembrist revolt of 1825. It is shown that the December conspiracy of the aristocracy destroyed the patriotic consensus between the government and society that had developed after the victory ...
Added: June 28, 2026
Chernomorchenko I., Ilya Medvedev, Korotayev A., Cross-Cultural Research 2026 Vol. 60 No. 4 P. 375–423
This study investigates which structural factors most strongly predict armed and unarmed revolutionary destabilization across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), as well as Asia using country–year data for 1950–2022 and a set of economic, demographic, political, and climatic indicators. It employs an interpretable machine learning framework (CatBoost with SHAP values ...
Added: June 1, 2026
Gužvica S., Tokovi Istorije 2026 No. 1 P. 15–52
The paper analyzes the intellectual climate and political circumstances that shaped and heavily influenced the literary imagination and the semantic horizon of two novels—The Optimists: the Novel of a Revolution by Ervin Sinkó and Like a Tear in the Ocean: A Trilogy by Manès Sperber. Besides introductory remarks and conclusion, the paper’s structure is threefold, ...
Added: May 7, 2026
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Conflict Management and Peace Science 2026 P. 1–23
In the field of civil war studies, there is a consensus that the risk of war decreases as income increases. Nevertheless, such consensus has not been reached in the field of civil resistance and unarmed revolutions. This paper proposes a curvilinear framework positing two opposite trends in economic development. On the one hand, it increases ...
Added: April 21, 2026
Вадим Устюжанин, Дмитрий Семичев, Леонид Гринин et al., Социологическое обозрение 2026 Т. 25 № 1 С. 9–61
The revolutionary process in the 21st century has undergone significant changes, and with the destabilization of democracy and the transformation of the world order, the number of revolutionary episodes has only increased, acquiring new goals and forms. In the countries of the Global South, as the population grew, millions of people began to come out ...
Added: March 25, 2026
Andrey Korotayev, Andrey Zhdanov, Julia Zinkina et al., Comparative Sociology 2025 Vol. 24 No. 6 P. 801–842
Revolutionary events are increasingly likely to take unarmed forms. This trend has been observed over the past 120 years as a result of the World System transformation, wherein most societies increased their GDP per capita, experienced the spread of modern formal education, and moved from predominantly rural and very young populations to mostly urban and older ...
Added: November 21, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Медведев И. А., Ufimtsev A. et al., Социологическое обозрение 2025 Т. 24 № 1 С. 71–105
One of the most important trends noted by researchers in the revolutionary events of recent decades is the rapid increase in the share of unarmed revolutionary uprisings and, accordingly, a decrease in the share of armed revolutionary insurgencies. The study of this trend is of great importance. This work continues previous research on unarmed revolutionary ...
Added: November 13, 2025
Ижогин А. А., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2025 Т. 37 № 3 С. 177–213
Existing data on elite splits suggest their significance for revolutionary success, as well as the significance of the defection of primarily security elites to the side of the revolutionary opposition for the success of a revolutionary uprising. The authors, relying on modern political science concepts and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), tested the corresponding hypotheses. The ...
Added: November 1, 2025
Крестьянников Е. А., Территория: журнал исторических исследований 2025 Т. 1 № 2 С. 164–200
1917 revolution and the following Civil War brought new leaders to the stage of history. A prominent example of a leading positions achievement at such historical moment is the rise of a Siberian lawyer Petr Vologodskii, who became a prime minister of Anti-Bolshevik governments. The first part of the article deals with Vologodskii’s positions in ...
Added: September 22, 2025
К прогнозированию вероятности невооруженной революционной дестабилизации методами машинного обучения
Медведев И. А., Korotayev A., Социология власти 2025 Т. 37 № 2 С. 108–141
The authors provide a broad overview of the main applications for machine learning methods in political sociology. They describe history of the transition from simple regression models to complex machine learning models. The reasons for and benefits of this transition are discussed. The authors identify the main uses of machine learning models in related disciplines and ...
Added: August 1, 2025
Korotayev A., Askerov M. A., Issaev L., Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз 2025 № 2(117) С. 137–159
В статье рассматривается возможность интерпретации августовских событий 2024 г. в Нигерии как неудавшейся куволюции, то есть особой разновидности революционных процессов, предполагающих сочетание революционной мобилизации масс с военным переворотом. При этом показана целесообразность выделения двух типов куволюций. Если в куволюциях первого типа массовая революционная мобилизация, направленная на свержение правительства, выступает триггером военного переворота в поддержку революции, ...
Added: July 6, 2025
Zhukova O., Философский журнал 2025 Т. 18 № 2 С. 94–108
This article is devoted to identifying the features of F.A. Stepun’s creative evolution, which resulted in the philosophical concept of Christian culture and history. At the center of consideration of philosopher is the phenomenon of culture as a condition and path of ascent to the Absolute. Stepun thinks of culture as the universal beginning of ...
Added: May 25, 2025
Korotayev A., Egor Fain, Ustyuzhanin V. et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 4-5 P. 659–677
This article is the final part of our systematic review of the substantive findings of fifth-generation revolution studies, building on the examination of the emergence and characteristics of this generation contained in the first article in the series. Our systematic review is divided into two parts. In this second and final part, the following areas ...
Added: January 30, 2025
Ustyuzhanin V., Fain E., Korotayev A., Экономическая социология 2025 Т. 26 № 1 С. 52–89
The article tests several hypotheses about the impact of wealth and income inequality, as well as inequality in human capital, on the risks of armed and unarmed revolutions. Using the revolutionary destabilization database from the Center for Stability and Risk Analysis (CSRA) at HSE University, along with data collected by Mark Beissinger, the study analyzes ...
Added: January 29, 2025