• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Articles
  • Forthcoming changes in world population distribution and global connectivity: implications for global foresight
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
July 6, 2026
Ancient Craniiform Brachiopod: A Newly Discovered Species with a Unique Shell Shape and Lifestyle
Scientists from HSE University, MSU, and Tallinn University of Technology have studied a fossil species of ancient brachiopods that lived in a warm sea in what is now northern Estonia more than 445 million years ago. These ancient brachiopods developed a cup-shaped shell with a protective 'cap' that shielded them from overgrowth by other marine organisms. The study has been published in Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
July 2, 2026
Researchers Discover How Spelling Errors Slow Down Reading in Russian
Psycholinguists from the Centre for Language and Brain at HSE University–St Petersburg have shown that words that are frequently misspelled are processed more slowly by readers, even when presented with the correct spelling. The researchers confirmed this effect for the first time using Russian-language materials and found that response speed is most strongly linked to how confidently individuals can distinguish the correct spelling of a word from an incorrect one. The study has been published in The Mental Lexicon.
July 2, 2026
HSE Develops App for Assessing Phonological Processing in Children
Researchers at the HSE Centre for Language and Brain have developed a new digital tool for assessing children's phonological processing skills—the ZARYA (Sound Analysis of the Russian Language) test battery. It is the first standardised application in Russia designed to provide a fast and reliable assessment of children's ability to distinguish speech sounds, retain them in working memory, and perform phonemic analysis. The app runs on Android tablets and smartphones and is available for download from RuStore. Details of the test validation have been published in the Journal of Speech, Language, and Hearing Research.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Forthcoming changes in world population distribution and global connectivity: implications for global foresight

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. 2018. Vol. 13. No. 3/4. P. 169–186.
Zinkina J., Shulgin S., Andreev A., Aleshkovski I., Korotayev A.

For the first-world citizens, globalisation seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon. Our research reveals that global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries and correspondingly, their populations. What will this picture look like in, say, 50 years? We combine demographic projections with our knowledge on the recent dynamics of national rates of global connectivity to estimate the proportion of world population which is expected to live in countries with varying rates of global connectivity. We show that the distribution of world population among the states with various rates of global connectivity is bound to experience significant changes in the coming decades, which should be taken into account at various attempts of providing global foresight.

Research target: Sociology (including Demography and Anthropology Political Science, International Relations, and Public Administration
Priority areas: humanitarian
Language: English
Full text
DOI
Text on another site
Keywords: globalisationdemographic projectionsmeasuring globalisationglobal connectivityworld populationglobal foresight
Publication based on the results of:
New World Order Architecture in the Middle and Near East (2018)
Similar publications
Младенческая смертность в регионах России в 1927-2022 гг.
Кузнецова П. О., Демографическое обозрение 2026 Т. 13 № 2 С. 37–70
В работе представлен анализ динамики и факторов младенческой смертности в регионах России в 1927-2022 гг., проведенный на данных Демоскоп Weeklyи Российской базы данных по рождаемости и смертности. Несмотря на значимость регионального фактора в младенческой смертности, особенно на ранних этапах наблюдаемого временного отрезка, эффект периода, как правило, оказывался важнее. Так,значительные  успехи  в  снижении  младенческой  смертности  в ...
Added: July 8, 2026
Социальное движение за исторически осведомленное исполнительство музыки: назад в будущее?
Poplavskaya A., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 2 С. 257–273
In the booj "The End of Early Music," published by Oxford University Press in 2007, oboist and musicologist Bruce Haynes addresses questions about the evolution of music, its composition, performance, and listening. Drawing on his extensive practical and educational experience, he argues for the importance of engaging with the past. Particular attention is given to ...
Added: July 7, 2026
AI Implementation by Small Entrepreneurs in Russia: Flowers Grow also on Stones
Dormidontova Y., Central European Business Review 2026 Vol. 15 No. 2 P. 69–90
This study examines the individual factors of artificial intelligence (AI) implementation by small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owners, based on a survey of 499 respondents in Russia. Drawing on Innovation Diffusion Theory, the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), and stakeholder-oriented sustainability approach, the analysis shows that SME owners who already use AI for private purposes are ...
Added: July 7, 2026
Смысл за страницами: какими смыслами обмениваются даритель и получатель при дарении книг
Talakauskas D., Лукин И. Ю., Журнал социологии и социальной антропологии 2026 Т. 29 № 2 С. 144–169
Gift giving is a widespread social practice with a long history, which is an important part of social relations. However, the gift giving of books may be difficult to describe with the help of classical gift exchange theories. The aim of the present study is to determine the palette of meanings exchanged between giver and receiver in the process ...
Added: July 7, 2026
Долгосрочная трансформация модели рождаемости в России и демографическая политика в 2006–2024 гг
Zakharov S. V., AlterEconomics (ранее - Журнал экономической теории) 2026 Т. 23 № 2 С. 429–447
This article examines changes in the quantum and structural characteristics of period and cohort fertility in Russia in the context of pro-natalist demographic policy pursued since 2006. The study assesses the significance of recent decades’ shifts for total fertility, the age profile of mothers, and their distribution by number of children born. The analysis draws ...
Added: July 7, 2026
Рождаемость российских поколений 1930-1980-х годов рождения по данным крупнейших национальных опросов женщин и данным статистики текущего учета
Andreev E. M., Zakharov S. V., Демографическое обозрение 2026 Т. 13 № 2 С. 1–33
The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of fertility indicators for Russian female cohorts born in the 1930s–1980s, obtained using two independent methods: (a) estimates based on the results of national surveys of women collecting information on the number of children ever born; and (b) estimates derived from specially constructed cohort age- and ...
Added: July 6, 2026
На пути прогресса: Вьетнам в XXI веке. Статьи разных лет: в 2 т.
Мазырин В. М., М.: ИКСА РАН, 2026.
Research collection “Towards progress: Vietnam in XXI century” brings together selected  articles by famous Russian orientalist Vladimir M. Mazyrin, written in 2006–2025 on a wide range of development issues in modern Vietnam. These articles are grouped into thematic parts. ...
Added: July 6, 2026
A New Approach to Identifying Political Connections: Evidence from the Russian Banking Sector
Kozlov N., Semenova M., Journal of Corporate Finance Research 2026 Vol. 20 No. 2 P. 108–135
This paper introduces a novel approach to identifying and operationalizing political connections of banks. We manually code 2,598 bankers who owned or worked in 115 Russian banks between 2015 and 2021 to classify political connections and uncover their institutional patterns through cluster analysis. We propose a set of variables that capture the origins, relevance, and ...
Added: July 6, 2026
Russia and the World: 2026. Economy and Foreign Policy. Annual Forecast
Kanaev E., Afontsev S. A., Bogdanov K. V. et al., IMEMO RAN, 2026.
The report "Russia and the World: 2026" consists of three parts: global trends, economy and foreign policy. The main forus is on isses of key importance for ensuring stable economic and political developments of Russia in the immediate (2026) and longer term. The report is based on decades long IMEMO experience in forecast research. The ...
Added: July 5, 2026
Арт-резиденция в России: ролевая диспозиция в (пере)сборке поля современного искусства
Ryabkov Y., Леонтьева А. В., Abramov R., Социология власти 2026 Т. 38 № 2 С. 230–261
This study analyzes art residencies in Russia as institutions that bring together artists, local contexts, and stakeholders. It focuses on three key aspects: strategies for institutional positioning within the art field and in relation to stakeholders; residents' practices regarding the local context; and the nature of the residencies' interactions with local residents. The institutionalization of ...
Added: July 4, 2026
Influence of Discursive Divisions on Lawmaking in the Socio-Economic Sphere in the VII Convocation of the Russian State Duma
Valiullina A., Maltsev A., Russian Politics 2026 Vol. 11 No. 2 P. 210–243
This study examines how discursive alignments during the 2018-2019 Russian pension reform debates correspond with subsequent legislative collaboration networks. Employing discourse-network analysis and frame analysis, we identify distinct parliamentary communities organized around interpretive frameworks rather than formal institutional boundaries. Inferential network analysis using Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) and Quadratic Assignment Procedure (MR-QAP) reveals that ...
Added: July 4, 2026
Этика использования искусственного интеллекта в качественных исследованиях
Bogdanov T., ИНТЕРакция. ИНТЕРвью. ИНТЕРпретация 2026 Т. 18 № 2 С. 30–50
The article addresses the ethical and methodological aspects of using artificial intelligence (AI) in qualitative sociological research. The widespread use of generative AI in scientific research has sparked an interdisciplinary debate regarding the instrumental efficiency and moral permissibility of applying this technology in the processes of acquiring scientific knowledge. The most active debates are taking ...
Added: July 3, 2026
Глобальный энергетический порядок-2040: контуры возникающей системы
Yenikeyeff S., Россия в глобальной политике 2026 Т. 24 № 4 С. 132–163
Will the new energy order emerge as the product of a managed reconfiguration, or will it emerge through a systemic rupture? The answer to this question will be largely determined by the actions of three powers: the United States, China, and Russia. Their decisions in the coming years—not only reactive but also structural—will create a ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Фискальная устойчивость и вероятность революционной дестабилизации. Опыт количественного анализа
Гусейнов Р. И., Ustyuzhanin V., Korotayev A., Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология 2026 Т. 20 № 2 С. 15–27
This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal stability and revolutionary onsets. Classic researchers of revolutions, such as Jack Goldstone, have provided theoretical arguments for the importance of fiscal factors, but any substantial quantitative cross-national large-n research has not been conducted yet. Logistic regression analysis with an interaction term that we have performed confirms our main ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Информационно-медийное пространство мировой политики: учебное пособие. – 2-е изд., испр. и доп.
Repina E., Багдасарьян Н. Г., Беликова А. А. et al., М.: КДУ, 2026.
Главная цель учебного пособия "Информационно-медийное пространство мировой политики" состоит в том, чтобы ознакомить учащихся с ключевыми теоретико-методологическими основами изучения медиа-информационного аспекта политических коммуникаций, а также сформировать у них набор компетенций, необходимых для практической работы со СМИ в сфере мировой политики и международных отношений. Учебное пособие предназначено для студентов и магистрантов вузов, обучающихся по специальностям международные ...
Added: July 2, 2026
Роль военной реформы в Египте времен Мухаммада Али в процессе модернизации страны и формирования египетской нации
Orlov I., Вовк А. С., Электронный научно-образовательный журнал "История" 2026 Т. 17 № 4 С. -–-
Egyptian society during the reign of Muhammad Ali (1805—1848) underwent a rapid transformation that determined the future of the country. Modernization was necessary for Muhammad Ali to create a powerful modern army and strengthen his independence. However, the launched social transformation was curtailed by the Wali when he was able to transfer power in Egypt ...
Added: July 1, 2026
Система синтаксических инвариантов текстовой деятельности: статистические дескрипторы, семантическая структура и диагностические профили
Kudriavtseva E., / РЦИС. Серия № 0148-756-286. 2026.
The content of the work is the system is a system for identifying four types of written speech structures. A set of 11 calculated parameters, statistical standards, and semantic characteristics allows for the identification of a text's structure as the result of a specific cognitive schema (scene, event, story, evaluation). The method has been verified ...
Added: June 2, 2026
Почему растущие доходы не делают людей счастливее: эмоциональное объяснение парадокса Истерлина (Why Growing Incomes Do Not Make People Happier: an Emotional Explanation of the Easterlin Paradox)
Vorchik A., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2026.
This work is devoted to a theoretical explanation of the Easterlin paradox, according to which long-term economic growth does not make average level of people's happiness increasing. By happiness, we mean the intensity of emotions people experience while comparing their new income with its expected value, or the target income with its original value. In the first case, ...
Added: May 31, 2026
Школьный литературный канон эмиграции 1918–1939 гг.
Strizhkova D., / Институт русской литературы (Пушкинский Дом) РАН. Серия B001 "Репозиторий открытых данных по русской литературе и фольклору". 2026.
В базе данных представлена роспись русскоязычных литературных произведений и отрывков, напечатанных в учебниках по словесности, хрестоматиях, книгах для чтения, сборниках стихотворений и рассказов, выходивших во Франции, Германии, Латвии, Эстонии, Болгарии, Сербии в период первой волны русской эмиграции с 1918 по 1939 гг. Датасет представляет интерес для исследователей школьного литературного канона, эмиграции и детского чтения ...
Added: April 22, 2026
Современная российская мультипликация как инструмент воспитания традиционных духовно-нравственных ценностей
Жигунов А. Ю., / Basic Research Programme. Серия HUM "Humanities". 2026. № 1.
The article attempts to describe the features of the educational potential of Russian animation programmes in aspect of the representation of traditional spiritual and moral values. Based on media and semiotic analysis, the method of cultural and historical interpretation, animated Russian projects created from 2000 to the 2025, which were translated on television channels or streaming ...
Added: April 19, 2026
Cовременная экономика концепции и модели инновационного развития
Морган Р. Б., Grishin V. I., Grishina O. A. et al., М.: ФГБОУ ВО "РЭУ им. Г.В. Плеханова", 2014.
This is a book on modern economics, written mainly in Russian but with a chapter in English. ...
Added: January 27, 2026
Политическая аккомодация культурных различий в индустриально развитых обществах (Political Accommodation of Cultural Differences in Industrialized Societies)
Малахов В. С., Симон М. Е., Летняков Д. Э. et al., / SSRN. Серия Social Science Research Network "Social Science Research Network". 2020.
The  notion  of  “political  accommodation” applied  to the  theory  and  practice  of managing cultural diversity could enrich the Russian academic dictionary. Liberal democratic states invented specific mechanisms for political accommodation of cultural differences. Thanks to these mechanisms, the part of the population of a democratic state that is not ready to dissolve into the ethnocultural ...
Added: September 26, 2025
Национальная мощь современных государств: сравнительный анализ. Аналитический доклад
Melville A. Y., Каберник В. В., Mironyuk M. et al., / МГИМО МИД России. 2024.
Данный аналитический доклад является одним из результатов исследований в рамках консорциума НИУ ВШЭ и МГИМО. В нем прежде всего раскрыты вопросы концептуализации национальной мощи и сопутствующих категорий и дается обзор прецедентов. Далее рассматриваются вопросы операционализации предлагаемых нами компонентов национальной мощи. В следующих разделах доклада предлагается анализ вопросов методологии, используемой в докладе. На этой основе предложен ...
Added: September 19, 2025
The Great Convergence and the World System Reconfiguration. Toward a New World Order
Ahmed F., Amarasinghe P., Bielig A. et al., Springer, 2025.
This series seeks to promote understanding of large-scale and long-term processes of social change, in particular the many facets and implications of globalization. It crit-ically explores the factors that affect the historical formation and current evolution of social systems, on both the regional and global level. Processes and factors that are examined include economies, technologies, ...
Added: August 28, 2025
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit