Анализ выживаемости авторитарных режимов в рентно-сырьевых экономиках: возможности и ограничения модели пропорциональных рисков

Вестник Пермского университета. Серия: Политология. 2018. Т. 12. № 4. С. 122–139.

Shulika Y.

Most researchers believe that states that are rich in natural resources are more able to maintain stability than those in which they are absent. The research problem touches upon the exceptions that do not fit into this proposition. Based on the idea that the state’s ability to extract resources imposes on it certain obligations to secure a public contract, the author hypothesizes that the quality of government is a mediating factor in the influence of resource dependence on the stability of autocracy. This factor is operationalized as the ability to pursue the declared policy and to distribute the public goods effectively. Using the Cox regression, the author carries out the survival analysis, which made it possible to substantiate this assumption statistically. The hypothesis was theoretically substantiated and observed in some examples of resource rent economies. The analysis showed that the of survival time of the authoritarian regime increases if the indicators of quality of government are high. The author tackles the issue of quantitative measurement of resource dependence and argues in favor of using the share of natural resources rents in GDP as such indicator. The article also provides the analysis of limitations and possibilities of Cox regression in analyzing the survival of autocracies and makes suggestions for improving the proportional hazards model.

Keywords: quality of governance, авторитарный режим, proportional hazards model, качество государственного управления, Cox regression, регрессия Кокса, rent economy, рентно-сырьевая экономика, resource dependency, ресурсная зависимость, модель пропорциональных рисков