Operative Scheme for Wind Short-Range Complex Forecasting

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 2018. Vol. 43. No. 7. P. 436–443.

Bagrov A., Bykov P. L., Gordin V. A.

We describe our scheme of the operative wind (and possible gusts) forecasts with lead-time up to 3 days and evaluate its success. It uses joint statistical processing of the results of several best operative forecasting hydrodynamic weather forecasting schemes. This approach allowed to reduce the error with respect to original schemes. The operative forecast and its evaluation for the period 2014 – 2016 y. realized for ~ 2800 cities of Russia, Belarus, and Central Asia. The update results are representing on the official site of Hydrometeorological Center of Russia every day at 8.30 (a.m. and p.m.) of the Moscow time.

Keywords: hydrodynamic forecasting, wind short-range forecasting, mean wind, gusts, squall, complex forecasting, justification of the forecast, learning period

Publication based on the results of: Математические модели. Дифференциальные уравнения и большие массивы информации. Аналитические и вычислительные методы. Практические приложения (2018)