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Промежуточные типы политических режимов и социально-политическая нестабильность. Опыт количественного кросс-национального анализа
Полития: Анализ. Хроника. Прогноз. 2016. № 3. С. 31–52.
The article attempts to test the hypothesis that consolidated democracies
and consecutive autocracies are more stable than intermediate regimes. The research
conducted by the authors, with the help of data from CNTS and Freedom
House, in general confirmed the presence of the U-curve relationship between
the type of regime and the level of socio-political instability. At the same time, the
study allowed to reveal a number of important details. Empirical tests have shown
that (a) the U-curve relationship between socio-political instability and the ty pe
of regime is usually characterized by a significant asymmetry; (b) the nature of
this asymmetry may vary over time; (c) since the end of the Cold War, the U-curve
relationship between regime type and level of socio-political instability has weakened
considerably and has undergone significant changes. If in 1973—1991 the
highest level of socio-political instability was demonstrated by unconsolidated democracies,
in 1992—2012 it became more typical for inconsistent autocracies.