Foresight in cities: on the possibility of a ‘strategic urban intelligence’

Foresight. 2016. Vol. 18. No. 5. P. 469–490.

Ravetz J., Miles I. D.

Purpose

This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method.

Findings

The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence.

Practical implications

The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis.

Originality/value

The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.

 

Keywords: organizational learning, urban policy, transition management, forward planning, scenario methods, strategic policy intelligence

Publication based on the results of: Development of the new approaches to the analysis and modeling of the behavior of actors of innovation processes and markets: operationalization of innovation strategie (2016)