• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • АБВ
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
  • A
Обычная версия сайта
  • RU
  • EN
  • HSE University
  • Publications
  • Book chapter
  • Condorcet's Interpretation of Probability Theory: Application of a Mathematical Construct to the Field of Social Action
  • RU
  • EN
Расширенный поиск
Высшая школа экономики
Национальный исследовательский университет
Priority areas
  • business informatics
  • economics
  • engineering science
  • humanitarian
  • IT and mathematics
  • law
  • management
  • mathematics
  • sociology
  • state and public administration
by year
  • 2027
  • 2026
  • 2025
  • 2024
  • 2023
  • 2022
  • 2021
  • 2020
  • 2019
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
  • 2001
  • 2000
  • 1999
  • 1998
  • 1997
  • 1996
  • 1995
  • 1994
  • 1993
  • 1992
  • 1991
  • 1990
  • 1989
  • 1988
  • 1987
  • 1986
  • 1985
  • 1984
  • 1983
  • 1982
  • 1981
  • 1980
  • 1979
  • 1978
  • 1977
  • 1976
  • 1975
  • 1974
  • 1973
  • 1972
  • 1971
  • 1970
  • 1969
  • 1968
  • 1967
  • 1966
  • 1965
  • 1964
  • 1963
  • 1958
  • More
Subject
News
May 25, 2026
HSE Scientists Train Neural Network to 'Hear' Faults in Electric Motors
Researchers at the AI and Digital Science Institute of the HSE Faculty of Computer Science have developed a new method—the Signature-Guided Data Augmentation (SGDA) framework—that achieves 99% accuracy in motor fault detection and 86% accuracy in fault classification. The application of this approach can reduce industrial equipment repair costs, minimise downtime, and improve production safety. The study results have been published in Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence.
May 25, 2026
'The Humanities Serve as a Conscience'
Maria Mizernaia studies Soviet literature and the history of book publishing. In this interview for the HSE Young Scientists project, she discusses plans to publish a novel about besieged Leningrad, AI-provoked reflections on what it means to be human, and how novels can help satisfy our dopamine hunger.
May 25, 2026
Is It Possible to Predict a Citys Life Based on the Shape of Its Neighbourhoods?
Is it possible to predict, based on the configuration of streets and buildings, where a café will open or where traffic congestion will occur? Participants in the Spatial Analysis and Modelling of Urban Processes research and study group use open data and machine learning to identify universal patterns. Alexander Sheludkov and Eduard Somov discuss the purpose of comparing cities, the need for new forms of urban statistics, and how open data is transforming approaches to urban studies.

 

Have you spotted a typo?
Highlight it, click Ctrl+Enter and send us a message. Thank you for your help!

Publications
  • Books
  • Articles
  • Chapters of books
  • Working papers
  • Report a publication
  • Research at HSE

?

Condorcet's Interpretation of Probability Theory: Application of a Mathematical Construct to the Field of Social Action

P. 224–227.
Ugleva A. V.
This paper offers an analysis of the Essay on the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions proposed wrote in 1785 by Nicolas de Condorcet (1743- 1794), a French philosopher, politician, scientist, member of the French Academy since 1782. Condorcet was the first who applied mathematical methods to the political and moral sciences. He described a voting algorithm, providing a real choice of the majority. In the same paper, he described the «paradox», later called «Condorcet's paradox» or the» paradox of voting», as the case of intransitive choice. We focus on the value of its significance for the prediction of human behavior and a place of Condorcet in the history of use of probability theory in the description of historical chronology.
Language: English
Full text
Keywords: political scienceprobabilityjury theoremparadox of Condorcet
Publication based on the results of:
Rationality in action: intentions, interpretations and interactions (2015)

In book

Rationality in Action: Intentions, Interpretations and Interactions
Rationality in Action: Intentions, Interpretations and Interactions
St. Petersburg: Aletheya, 2015.
Similar publications
ВЕРОЯТНОСТЬ НЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ (сюжет для исследовательских проектов школьников)
Semenov P., Математика в школе 2024 № 4 С. 34–40
Simple examples are given to show that the independence of two random events is a very rare circumstance. It is shown how to estimate its frequency. Open questions are posed ...
Added: March 14, 2026
П50 Политология. Новый лексикон / Под ред. А.И. Соловьева. — 2-е изд., испр. и доп. — М.: Издательство «Аспект Пресс», 2024. — 525 с. ISBN 978-5-7567-1322-0УДК 327 ББК 66.4 ISBN 978-5-7567-1322-0 © Коллектив авторов, 2024 © ООО Издательство «Аспект Пресс», 2024
М.: Аспект Пресс, 2024.
The bookы reveal the concepts and categories characterizing the actual forms of traditional political processes at the present stage of society's development, as well as describe a number of new phenomena and processes that are at the stage of conceptualization. The texts contain new theoretical materials, demonstrate a number of non-trivial ideas and approaches, and ...
Added: March 3, 2026
Об одной задаче, связанной с моментом первого достижения заданного уровня случайным процессом
Семаков С. Л., Автоматика и телемеханика 2025 № 12 С. 104–118
This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability of the following event: a continuous random process will first reach a given level at some time from a given variation interval of the independent variable. The general results obtained previously are specified for a smooth Gaussian process. The estimates are calculated for different values of ...
Added: February 23, 2026
Investigating the reproducibility of the social and behavioural sciences
Miske O., Abatayo A. L., Daley M. et al., Nature 2026 Vol. 652 P. 126–134
Published claims should be reproducible, yielding the same result when applying the same analysis to the same data. ...
Added: January 19, 2026
Политическое в пространстве турбулентного мира
Гаман-Голутвина О.В., Сморгунов Л. В., Полис. Политические исследования 2023 № 1 С. 7–10
The object of consideration in the article is the sources of global turbulence and the understanding of this topic within the framework of modern political science. Among the sources of turbulence are the natural environment and its pulsations, which can destabilize social systems; anthropogenic impact on nature, climate and large ecosystems; unstable demography and powerful ...
Added: December 8, 2025
The First Achievement of a Given Level by a Random Process
Semakov S., Semakov A., Semakov I., , in: 62nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Singapore, Singapore, 2023.: IEEE, 2023. P. 3820–3825.
We estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x*, the condition (y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*))∈D holds, where D is a given domain of (n−1)-dimensional Euclidean space R^(n−1). The need to calculate the abovementioned probability arises in the problems of aircraft control during landing. ...
Added: August 9, 2025
The first achievement of a given level by a random process
Sergei L. Semakov, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 2024 Vol. 70 No. 10 P. 7162–7178
We propose a scheme for finding the probabilities of events related to crossings of a level by a random process. Using this scheme, we estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of an n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x* , the other components y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*) satisfy given ...
Added: August 3, 2025
The problem of the exit of a random process to the boundary of a domain and its application to the study of the behavior of stock prices
Sergei Semakov, International Journal of Dynamics and Control 2025 Vol. 13 No. 5 Article 201
We consider the problem of the exit of a diffusion Markov process to the boundary of a given domain. We concentrate on the one-dimensional case and solve the problem of finding the probability that the first exit of the process beyond the established corridor will occur at a given time. We apply the obtained results ...
Added: August 2, 2025
Исследования языковой политики как публичной политики в российской и мировой науке
Zamyatin K., Социолингвистика 2023 Т. 3 № 15 С. 29–52
In connection with significant changes in the life of society and the state in recent years, the issues of language policy have again become relevant. The need to respond to new challenges launched the processes of language planning, at the core of which was the process of developing the Concept of the state language policy, ...
Added: April 19, 2025
Simulation and Optimization in the Tasks of Organizing Labor Resources in the Context of Digitalization
Aristova N., Chadeev V., Iakimova O., , in: 2024 17th International Conference on Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD).: IEEE, 2024. P. 1–4.
Added: February 3, 2025
The Fifth Generation of Revolution Studies. Part I: When, Why, and How Did It Emerge
Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin, Vadim Ustyuzhanin et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 2 P. 257–282
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct ...
Added: November 26, 2024
New Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Family of Rayleigh Distributions, Based on a Special Property and a Characterization
I. A. Ragozin, Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2024 Vol. 281 No. 1 P. 158 – 167
New goodness-of-fit tests for Rayleigh distribution family with an arbitrary scale-parameter σ, are constructed on the base of some property and some characterization. For these tests, limiting distributions are described, local Bahadur efficiencies under close alternatives are calculated, and asymptotic comparison of our test statistics is performed. ...
Added: November 13, 2024
Политическая наука в меняющемся мире : новые практики и теоретический поиск. Москва, Аспект Пресс, 2023 г.
Gaman-Golutvina O. V., М.: Издательство РУДН, 2023.
The collection contains materials of reports and speeches by participants of the All-Russian RAPN Conference with international participation "Political Science in a changing world: new practices and theoretical search". For political scientists, sociologists, specialists in the field of international relations and regional studies, anyone interested in modern political problems of development in Russia and the ...
Added: October 10, 2024
Образовательная программа "Политология"
Bogachev M., [б.и.], 2024.
Программа «Политология» готовит высококлассных профессионалов в областях, связанных с политикой, и дает широкий набор компетенций, обеспечивающих адаптивность и гибкость на современном рынке труда. Отличительная черта программы – не только мощная подготовка в области методов исследования политики и общества (от навыков проведения интервью до анализа данных в средах R и Python), но и чтение курсов ведущими ...
Added: April 23, 2024
Мыслители города ветров: Прагматистская социальная наука в Чикаго в первой половине ХХ века
Efremenko D. V., Nikolaev V. G., М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2024.
20–30-е годы ХХ века в Чикагском университете ознаменовались стремительным взлетом социальных наук и формированием научных школ. Общей теоретической рамкой социальных исследований стал прагматизм, лидер которого Дж. Дьюи внес большой вклад в развитие научных и образовательных программ Чикагского университета. Монография посвящена анализу становления социологической и политологической школ, рассмотрению интеллектуального наследия и биографий их ключевых фигур – Дж.Г. ...
Added: April 12, 2024
Handbook on Global Constitutionalism: Second Edition
Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023.
This thoroughly revised Handbook presents an up-to-date political and philosophical history of global constitutionalism. By exploring the constitutional-like qualities of international affairs, it provides key insights into the evolving world order. Through a sustained examination of current events, as well as an acknowledgement of the significance of early constitutional history, this erudite Handbook brings together contributions ...
Added: March 21, 2024
14th International Conference, OPTIMA 2023, Petrovac, Montenegro, September 18–22, 2023, Revised Selected Papers. Communications in Computer and Information Science (CCIS, volume 1913)
Springer, 2023.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Advances in Optimization and Applications, OPTIMA 2023, held in Petrovac, Montenegro, during September 18–22, 2023. The 21 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 68 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: ​mathematical programming; global optimization; continuous optimization; ...
Added: December 9, 2023
Теоретические подходы к изучению языковых режимов
Tulum A., Общественные науки и современность 2024 № 4 С. 128–136
The concept of language regime emerged in political science in the late 1980s. The time of great changes and transformation saw the rise of ethnic conflicts, new challenges to language diversity management in many European states due to migration, a discussion of linguistic rights and developments in international law. As a result, all these trends ...
Added: September 25, 2023
Обществознание : 11 класс: учебное пособие: базовый уровень
Sorvin K., Bogachev M., Ikonnikova N. K. et al., М.: Просвещение, 2022.
Учебное пособие подготовлено в соответствии с требованиями ФГОС СОО. В учебном пособии рассмотрены вопросы духовной культуры, правовых отношений, политического устройства общества. Практикумы знакомят учащихся с методами социологических исследований и нацелены на их практическое применение. Содержание и методический аппарат учебного пособия обеспечат реализацию системно-деятельностного подхода в обучении. ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Предметное поле законодательных исследований в политической науке
Pomiguev I., Политическая наука 2023 № 1 С. 16–41
The article presents an overview of the subject field of legislative research in political science. The author conceptualizes the concepts of “legislative” and “lawmaking”, describes the main historical milestones in the development of the mentioned research area, and he also talks about the most popular topics now. The author writes about the scientific approaches and ...
Added: July 10, 2023
Rise and Fall: Social Science in Russia Before and After the War
Zavadskaya M., Gerber T., Post-Soviet Affairs 2023 Vol. 39 No. 1-2 P. 108–120
In this essay, we first briefly recount the post-Soviet history of social science in Russia, with particular attention to the role of international collaborations in spurring its growth, and we review the accelerating attacks on university autonomy and international collaborations that preceded Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February 2022. Then we consider developments since ...
Added: March 5, 2023
  • About
  • About
  • Key Figures & Facts
  • Sustainability at HSE University
  • Faculties & Departments
  • International Partnerships
  • Faculty & Staff
  • HSE Buildings
  • HSE University for Persons with Disabilities
  • Public Enquiries
  • Studies
  • Admissions
  • Programme Catalogue
  • Undergraduate
  • Graduate
  • Exchange Programmes
  • Summer University
  • Summer Schools
  • Semester in Moscow
  • Business Internship
  • Research
  • International Laboratories
  • Research Centres
  • Research Projects
  • Monitoring Studies
  • Conferences & Seminars
  • Academic Jobs
  • Yasin (April) International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development
  • Media & Resources
  • Publications by staff
  • HSE Journals
  • Publishing House
  • iq.hse.ru: commentary by HSE experts
  • Library
  • Economic & Social Data Archive
  • Video
  • HSE Repository of Socio-Economic Information
  • HSE1993–2026
  • Contacts
  • Copyright
  • Privacy Policy
  • Site Map
Edit