?
Condorcet's Interpretation of Probability Theory: Application of a Mathematical Construct to the Field of Social Action
P. 224–227.
This paper offers an analysis of the Essay on
the Application of Analysis to the Probability of Majority Decisions
proposed wrote in 1785 by Nicolas de Condorcet (1743-
1794), a French philosopher, politician, scientist, member of the
French Academy since 1782. Condorcet was the first who applied
mathematical methods to the political and moral sciences. He
described a voting algorithm, providing a real choice of the majority.
In the same paper, he described the «paradox», later called
«Condorcet's paradox» or the» paradox of voting», as the case of
intransitive choice. We focus on the value of its significance for
the prediction of human behavior and a place of Condorcet in the history of use of probability theory in the description of historical
chronology.
Publication based on the results of:
In book
St. Petersburg: Aletheya, 2015.
Semenov P., Математика в школе 2024 № 4 С. 34–40
Simple examples are given to show that
the independence of two random events is a very
rare circumstance. It is shown how to estimate its
frequency. Open questions are posed ...
Added: March 14, 2026
М.: Аспект Пресс, 2024.
The bookы reveal the concepts and categories characterizing the actual forms of traditional political processes at the present stage of society's development, as well as describe a number of new phenomena and processes that are at the stage of conceptualization. The texts contain new theoretical materials, demonstrate a number of non-trivial ideas and approaches, and ...
Added: March 3, 2026
Семаков С. Л., Автоматика и телемеханика 2025 № 12 С. 104–118
This paper considers the problem of estimating the probability of the following event: a continuous random process will first reach a given level at some time from a given variation interval of the independent variable. The general results obtained previously are specified for a smooth Gaussian process. The estimates are calculated for different values of ...
Added: February 23, 2026
Miske O., Abatayo A. L., Daley M. et al., Nature 2026 Vol. 652 P. 126–134
Published claims should be reproducible, yielding the same result when applying the same analysis to the same data. ...
Added: January 19, 2026
Гаман-Голутвина О.В., Сморгунов Л. В., Полис. Политические исследования 2023 № 1 С. 7–10
The object of consideration in the article is the sources of global turbulence and the understanding of this topic within the framework of modern political science. Among the sources of turbulence are the natural environment and its pulsations, which can destabilize social systems; anthropogenic impact on nature, climate and large ecosystems; unstable demography and powerful ...
Added: December 8, 2025
Semakov S., Semakov A., Semakov I., , in: 62nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Singapore, Singapore, 2023.: IEEE, 2023. P. 3820–3825.
We estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x*, the condition (y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*))∈D holds, where D is a given domain of (n−1)-dimensional Euclidean space R^(n−1). The need to calculate the abovementioned probability arises in the problems of aircraft control during landing. ...
Added: August 9, 2025
Sergei L. Semakov, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 2024 Vol. 70 No. 10 P. 7162–7178
We propose a scheme for finding the probabilities of events related to crossings of a level by a random process. Using this scheme, we estimate the probability that the first achievement of a given level by the component y_1(x) of an n-dimensional continuous process y(x)={y_1(x),…,y_n(x)} occurs at some moment x* from a given interval (x′,x′′) and, at this moment x* , the other components y_2(x*),…,y_n(x*) satisfy given ...
Added: August 3, 2025
Sergei Semakov, International Journal of Dynamics and Control 2025 Vol. 13 No. 5 Article 201
We consider the problem of the exit of a diffusion Markov process to the boundary of a given domain. We concentrate on the one-dimensional case and solve the problem of finding the probability that the first exit of the process beyond the established corridor will occur at a given time. We apply the obtained results ...
Added: August 2, 2025
Zamyatin K., Социолингвистика 2023 Т. 3 № 15 С. 29–52
In connection with significant changes in the life of society and the state in recent years, the issues of language policy have again become relevant. The need to respond to new challenges launched the processes of language planning, at the core of which was the process of developing the Concept of the state language policy, ...
Added: April 19, 2025
Aristova N., Chadeev V., Iakimova O., , in: 2024 17th International Conference on Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD).: IEEE, 2024. P. 1–4.
Added: February 3, 2025
Andrey Korotayev, Leonid Grinin, Vadim Ustyuzhanin et al., Critical Sociology 2025 Vol. 51 No. 2 P. 257–282
There are grounds for claiming that a new (‘fifth’) generation of revolution studies has emerged in the 21st century. It can be noted that the characteristics of this generation are as follows: a tendency toward a macro-level outlook, encompassing both historical and geographical dimensions, coupled with a propensity toward a systemic approach; study of distinct ...
Added: November 26, 2024
I. A. Ragozin, Journal of Mathematical Sciences 2024 Vol. 281 No. 1 P. 158 – 167
New goodness-of-fit tests for Rayleigh distribution family with an arbitrary scale-parameter σ, are constructed on the base of some property and some characterization. For these tests, limiting distributions are described, local Bahadur efficiencies under close alternatives are calculated, and asymptotic comparison of our test statistics is performed. ...
Added: November 13, 2024
Gaman-Golutvina O. V., М.: Издательство РУДН, 2023.
The collection contains materials of reports and speeches by participants of the All-Russian RAPN Conference with international participation "Political Science in a changing world: new practices and theoretical search". For political scientists, sociologists, specialists in the field of international relations and regional studies, anyone interested in modern political problems of development in Russia and the ...
Added: October 10, 2024
Bogachev M., [б.и.], 2024.
Программа «Политология» готовит высококлассных профессионалов в областях, связанных с политикой, и дает широкий набор компетенций, обеспечивающих адаптивность и гибкость на современном рынке труда. Отличительная черта программы – не только мощная подготовка в области методов исследования политики и общества (от навыков проведения интервью до анализа данных в средах R и Python), но и чтение курсов ведущими ...
Added: April 23, 2024
Efremenko D. V., Nikolaev V. G., М.: ИНИОН РАН, 2024.
20–30-е годы ХХ века в Чикагском университете ознаменовались стремительным взлетом социальных наук и формированием научных школ. Общей теоретической рамкой социальных исследований стал прагматизм, лидер которого Дж. Дьюи внес большой вклад в развитие научных и образовательных программ Чикагского университета. Монография посвящена анализу становления социологической и политологической школ, рассмотрению интеллектуального наследия и биографий их ключевых фигур – Дж.Г. ...
Added: April 12, 2024
Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2023.
This thoroughly revised Handbook presents an up-to-date political and philosophical history of global constitutionalism. By exploring the constitutional-like qualities of international affairs, it provides key insights into the evolving world order.
Through a sustained examination of current events, as well as an acknowledgement of the significance of early constitutional history, this erudite Handbook brings together contributions ...
Added: March 21, 2024
Springer, 2023.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Advances in Optimization and Applications, OPTIMA 2023, held in Petrovac, Montenegro, during September 18–22, 2023.
The 21 full papers included in this book were carefully reviewed and selected from 68 submissions. They were organized in topical sections as follows: mathematical programming; global optimization; continuous optimization; ...
Added: December 9, 2023
Tulum A., Общественные науки и современность 2024 № 4 С. 128–136
The concept of language regime emerged in political science in the late 1980s. The time of great changes and transformation saw the rise of ethnic conflicts, new challenges to language diversity management in many European states due to migration, a discussion of linguistic rights and developments in international law. As a result, all these trends ...
Added: September 25, 2023
Sorvin K., Bogachev M., Ikonnikova N. K. et al., М.: Просвещение, 2022.
Учебное пособие подготовлено в соответствии с требованиями ФГОС СОО. В учебном пособии рассмотрены вопросы духовной культуры, правовых отношений, политического устройства общества. Практикумы знакомят учащихся с методами социологических исследований и нацелены на их практическое применение. Содержание и методический аппарат учебного пособия обеспечат реализацию системно-деятельностного подхода в обучении. ...
Added: August 17, 2023
Pomiguev I., Политическая наука 2023 № 1 С. 16–41
The article presents an overview of the subject field of legislative research in political science. The author conceptualizes the concepts of “legislative” and “lawmaking”, describes the main historical milestones in the development of the mentioned research area, and he also talks about the most popular topics now. The author writes about the scientific approaches and ...
Added: July 10, 2023
Zavadskaya M., Gerber T., Post-Soviet Affairs 2023 Vol. 39 No. 1-2 P. 108–120
In this essay, we first briefly recount the post-Soviet history of social science in Russia, with particular attention to the role of international collaborations in spurring its growth, and we review the accelerating attacks on university autonomy and international collaborations that preceded Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine in February 2022. Then we consider developments since ...
Added: March 5, 2023