Generative AI and the uneven disruption of freelance labor: Exposure, diffusion, and adaptation under constraint

Technology in Society. 2026. Vol. 88. Article 103464.

Tekic Z., Omelchenko Y., Dunaeva A.

Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is reshaping work, yet evidence on labor market adjustment remains concentrated in Western economies and studies of global freelance platforms conducted under comparatively stable access to frontier tools. Whether disruption patterns associated with task exposure also appear under more constrained diffusion remains unclear. We examine the Russian freelance economy using transaction-level panel data from Profi.ru covering 11,894 individuals across six freelance service categories and an offline comparison group from the same platform over 24 months, from February 2022 through January 2024. February 2023, when public attention to ChatGPT in Russia surged, serves as the empirical diffusion anchor. We estimate sector-specific changes in monthly participation, orders, and income, as well as in average order value (AOV) among active months, using difference-in-differences models with panel fixed effects, supplemented by event study and ramp specifications. The main estimates focus on panel units that recorded at least one order in both periods. The sectoral pattern remains in the full panel and in comparisons with other digital services on the same platform. Word processing and translation show significant declines in participation, orders, and income, whereas programming, marketing, and web development show no comparable contraction. Design also declines, but follows a gradual trajectory and records higher AOV among active months, consistent with a change in the composition or value of completed orders. By linking task exposure with diffusion conditions, the study extends evidence on GenAI and freelance labor markets to a constrained diffusion setting and shows that early adjustment differs across sectors in both timing and form. Examining participation, overall activity, and transaction value jointly also distinguishes contraction in market activity from changes in the mix or value of completed orders.

Keywords: институциональные ограничения, диффузия технологий, institutional constraints, technology diffusion, генеративный ИИ, Generative AI, Freelance labor markets, Human-AI complementarity, Task exposure, Рынки фриланс-труда, Взаимодополняемость человека и ИИ