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De-Dollarization, Global Economic Integration, and Resilience in BRICS+ Economies
The increasingly rapid process of de-dollarization in the context of growing geopolitical fragmentation has significantly altered the monetary dynamics of the global economy, thereby posing important questions about economic resilience and sustainable development in the emerging world. This research investigates de-dollarization-related macro-financial conditions and their association with economic resilience in the BRICS+ countries during the time span of 2000–2024, considering macroeconomic, financial, and environmental aspects. In the empirical analysis, economic resilience is operationalized through annual GDP growth, which is used as an indicator of the macroeconomic performance dimension of resilience. Due to the absence of a consistent direct de-dollarization index for all BRICS+ economies over 2000–2024, de-dollarization is captured through exchange-rate dynamics and related external monetary-financial indicators, including the official exchange rate, current account balance, total reserves, and trade openness. By employing annual panel data and the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) method to address cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, the study identifies the structural changes linked to major global shocks and currency shifts. The results show that de-dollarization-related macro-financial conditions have differential long-run associations with resilience, depending on the macroeconomic stability and financial development of the countries. The findings indicate that exchange-rate dynamics and external financial conditions play an important role in shaping the macroeconomic resilience of BRICS+ economies. Environmental outcomes are found to be important determinants of long-run resilience, suggesting that sustainability-driven structural changes improve resilience during the process of global monetary shifts. The results indicate that resilience during global realignment goes beyond financial diversification and is linked to the sustainability frameworks.
Keywords:
de-dollarization; economic resilience; sustainable development; BRICS+ economies; CS-ARDL