Количественная оценка экономического воздействия антироссийских санкций на страны-инициаторы

Журнал Новой экономической ассоциации. 2026. № 3. С. 157–185.

Lola I. S., Asoskov D., Ursulenko V.

In the context of the active use of economic sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy pressure, the analysis of not only the direct but also the reverse effects of such measures (the boomerang effect) becomes particularly relevant. The main purpose of the study is to obtain metrics that quantify the impact of sanctions on the economies of the countries that initiated them against Russia.

The work uses a modified synthetic control group method, which allows us to compare the real macroeconomic indicators of countries that imposed sanctions during 2022-2023 with their synthetic counterparts in the hypothetical scenario of the absence of sanctions pressure. The main indicators are GDP per capita (PPP), exports and imports as a percentage of GDP. For the analysis, data was used on 101 states, among which 44 imposed sanctions against Russia. The sources were databases of the World Bank, Eurostat, ITC Trademark and UN Comtrade.

According to the calculations obtained, as a result of the imposition of sanctions in 2022-2023, GDP per capita in the initiator countries decreased by an average of 1.1%. The most "affected" countries were those that traded with Russia more intensively than others, namely Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova. Their level of well–being decreased by an average of 4.9%, and separately for the Baltic countries - by 5.6%.

Keywords: санкции, метод синтетической контрольной группы, "эффект бумеранга"

Publication based on the results of: Assessment of the business climate based on the results of conjuncture surveys in the conditions of formation of a new model of economic growth (2025)