Islamist State Formation in Somalia

Social Evolution & History. 2025. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 77–102.

Askerov M. A., Issaev L., Korotayev A.

This article examines the trajectory of jihadist state-building in Somalia from the early 1990s to the present, focusing on the evolution of Islamist governance projects initiated by Al-Ittihad al-Islami, the Union of Islamic Courts, Al-Shabaab, and the Islamic State's Somali affiliate (Wilayat al-Sumal). Drawing on field research conducted in Somalia in May 2023, expert interviews, as well as reports from research centers, government institutions, and propaganda materials from jihadist organizations, the study employs qualitative content analysis and critical discourse analysis to explore both narratives and governance practices. The analysis demonstrates that Al-Shabaab has developed the most durable proto-state structure in Somalia, successfully institutionalizing judicial mechanisms, taxation, and basic service provision while embedding itself into local clan dynamics. In contrast, Wilayat al-Sumal remains limited in scope, focusing on insurgency and terrorist attacks without establishing meaningful governance or territorial control, and functioning instead as a logistical and financial hub within the broader Islamic State network in Africa. The article argues that the Somali case illustrates the divergent approaches of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State towards state-building: whereas Al-Shabaab's relative success stems from its ability to localize and integrate into Somali social structures, Wilayat Somalia's failure underscores the limits of a transnational jihadist model detached from local realities. This comparison not only enhances our understanding of Islamist governance in Somalia but also sheds light on the broader dynamics of jihadist competition across Africa.

Keywords: Somalia, state-building, Al-Qaeda, The Islamic State, Al-Shabaab, Wilayat al-Sumal, jihadist

Publication based on the results of: State Resilience and National Security of Russia in the Context of the World Order Transformation (2025)