Мир стоит на пороге эпохи технологической сингулярности. Как изменятся тренды базовых глобальных процессов и эволюция человечества

Вестник Российской академии наук. 2025. № 9. С. 3–15.

Akaev A., Ильин И. В., Korotayev A.

The article examines the likelihood of creating artificial intelligence (AI) at the human level (“human intelligence level”, AGI) by 2027-2029 and the onset of the era of technological singularity, when a fundamental change in the mechanism of human evolution will occur. It is noted that this probability is close to one, since these dates surprisingly coincided with the dates of the evolutionary singularity. Changes in the development trends of such key global processes such as demographic dynamics and technological progress generated by human–AGI interaction, as well as various scenarios for the development of human evolution in the era of the singularity - a bifurcation time limited to 15-20 years. It is shown that the active formation of the symbiosis “human +AI” as the leading force of development in all fields of activity will allow humanity to move along a progressive branch of evolution.

Keywords: искусственный интеллект, singularity, сингулярность, цифровые технологии, progress, прогресс, big data, technological revolution, технологическая революция, digital technologies, большие данные, artificial intelligence, bifurcation time, hyperbolic law of evolution, evolutionary singularity, demographic and informational imperatives, human-intelligent machine symbiosis, бифуркационное время, гиперболический закон развития эволюции, эволюционная сингулярность, демографический и информационный императивы, симбиоз человека и интеллектуальной машины